The Guardian”: New record for El Niño, experts warn of severe global consequences

The El Niño currently developing has surpassed the previous temperature record, even though its peak was expected to be reached several months later. The development has heightened concerns about powerful heatwaves, droughts, floods and other extreme consequences in different parts of the world.

Recent measurements show that temperatures in the central part of the El Niño region in the Pacific Ocean have risen to 3.05°C above average. This exceeds the record of 3.02°C recorded in November 2015, with the comparison based on average temperatures for the period 1991–2020.

According to climate models, temperatures associated with the phenomenon could reach around 4°C in November and December. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather described such a possibility as extremely unusual, while some experts have called this episode a “Godzilla-level” El Niño.

El Niño is a natural climate process during which the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean periodically warm and weather patterns change around the world. A temperature increase of more than 0.5°C is defined as El Niño, while a level above 2°C is considered a very strong event.

The risk of more severe consequences is also linked to the fact that the phenomenon is occurring on a planet that has already been warmed by climate change caused by human activity.

Prof. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London described the situation as a major redistribution of energy in the climate system and warned that it is dangerous because it is occurring over a much warmer system already affected by human activity.

According to Otto, many countries could face unprecedented extreme temperatures, bringing consequences for health, food security and water supplies.

The first signs of El Niño’s impact have already been observed in several parts of the world. In Indonesia, hot and dry weather has created favorable conditions for fires and air pollution, while changes in monsoon rainfall have been recorded in India.

Drought in Central America and the Caribbean is damaging agricultural production and lowering water levels in the Panama Canal. The situation is also causing difficulties for transport and trade.

Other regions could be hit by heavier rainfall and flooding. Peru and Chile are among the countries that could face heavy rains, while the Horn of Africa remains particularly vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns.

Forecasts for Australia and southern Africa point to hotter and drier conditions, which could increase the risk of droughts and fires.

The consequences could also extend to food security. The World Food Programme has warned that El Niño could push around 50 million people toward acute hunger and contribute to rising food prices.

“The Guardian” recalls that previous powerful episodes, particularly those of 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, were accompanied by major economic damage around the world.

Zeke Hausfather estimates that the economic consequences of a very strong El Niño could be particularly severe if the phenomenon coincides with a global climate that is already warmer.

Experts stress that El Niño remains a natural phenomenon that appears and recedes cyclically, but global warming is changing the climatic conditions in which it develops.