Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb under tension, two key corridors threaten global trade

Geopolitical tensions have simultaneously affected two of the world’s most important maritime arteries, increasing uncertainty over the movement of international goods and energy supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz, which serves as an essential channel for oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf, has recorded a sharp contraction in traffic. On Thursday, only 7 large commercial vessels passed through, compared with around 125 passages a day before the war began.

Meanwhile, around 2,000 kilometers farther west, Houthi rebels have strengthened their positions along Yemen’s coast and extended their presence to the strategic island of Perim, located at the center of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Perim is of particular importance to maritime transport because it lies at a crucial point on the route linking the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea. Through the Suez Canal, this corridor is a major trade hub connecting Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Despite recent developments, Bab el-Mandeb remains open to commercial vessels. On Thursday, 26 ships passed through the strait, almost matching the daily average of 27 vessels recorded over the previous ten days.

For shipping companies and insurers, the risk is not limited to whether the route is currently operating. The Houthis’ presence on Perim could affect assessments of insurance costs, crew protection and the decision to reroute vessels if the clashes intensify.

The situation in Hormuz is significantly more critical. The drop from around 125 to just 7 ships a day demonstrates the scale of the traffic disruption at one of the world’s key energy-supply points.

Restricted movement through Hormuz is increasing the importance of alternatives for shipping Saudi oil toward the Red Sea coast. Consequently, any expansion of Houthi activity near Bab el-Mandeb would add pressure to the region’s energy chain.

At the same time, Yemen’s internationally recognized government is preparing a counteroffensive aimed at reclaiming lost territory. The confrontation is also taking on a broader dimension, affecting relations between Riyadh and Washington.

If the escalation continues, shipping companies may choose to stop transiting Bab el-Mandeb and instead take the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. This would mean longer journeys, higher transport costs and more expensive insurance premiums.

The greatest risk to international trade stems from the convergence of the two crises. At a time when traffic through Hormuz has fallen sharply, Bab el-Mandeb is facing renewed military pressure. As a result, two important Middle Eastern corridors are simultaneously at the center of a confrontation that could hit the global energy and transport sectors.