Iran aims for double pressure from Hormuz to the Red Sea, markets fear a new shock

Analysts assess that Iran could activate its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Such an action would open a new front in the escalating clash with the United States and endanger one of the main arteries of global trade and energy transport.

After disruptions appeared in maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran could further increase pressure on Washington by also targeting Bab el-Mandeb. This strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as a passage for Saudi oil exports, as well as a large portion of international maritime trade.

These concerns followed a statement by Mohammed al-Fara, a senior official of the Houthi movement, who told Iranian media that Yemen’s armed forces are prepared to close Bab el-Mandeb if Saudi Arabia continues its attacks on Yemen. He warned that the simultaneous blockade of Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz could drive oil to 200 dollars per barrel, producing severe shocks for the global economy.

Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East scholar, told Reuters that Iran is signaling to Washington that it has the capacity to simultaneously threaten two of the most important energy corridors. According to him, this shifts the situation from a bilateral conflict toward a crisis with global impact.

Analysts stress that the main risk is not necessarily linked to the immediate outbreak of a wide-ranging war. The concern is the gradual expansion of the clash, in which each side increases pressure without directly entering a military confrontation.

Dennis Ross, former American negotiator for the Middle East, said that the United States still faces the challenge of finding a path that would bring Iran back to the negotiating table and secure a solution acceptable to both sides.

The Houthis have previously shown that they can disrupt maritime traffic in Bab el-Mandeb. After the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023, they struck commercial ships in the Red Sea, forcing major shipping companies to change itineraries and sail around Africa. This led to significant increases in transport costs and prompted military intervention by the US, the United Kingdom, and their allies.

Security expert Andreas Krieg of King’s College London described the use of the Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb as Iran’s “last strategic option.” He assesses that Tehran is likely to resort to this step only if it concludes that a full escalation of the conflict cannot be avoided.

On the other hand, Abdulaziz Sager, president of the Gulf Research Center, warned that a Houthi attempt to block maritime navigation would provoke a broader military response from the United States and its partners, aimed at weakening the military capabilities of the Yemeni group.