Forbes: $400,000 wager on Putin’s removal as predictions grow that he could be toppled by the end of the year

Vladimir Putin is going through one of the harshest, perhaps the most difficult, phases in the entire 22-year span in which he has led Russia, including 14 consecutive years at its helm.

In recent months, pressure on the Kremlin has increased significantly. Ukraine, after drawing lessons from the period that began with the Russian invasion in February 2022 and extends to the end of 2025, has entered a counteroffensive phase.

Ukrainian strikes have already reached Moscow and its outskirts near the Kremlin, St. Petersburg and Crimea. Vital energy infrastructure is under constant attack, the production of energy reserves is being disrupted, and citizens are waiting in lines at fuel stations to refuel.

Putin himself has publicly acknowledged that the country is facing difficulties. He has spoken about the pressure on the energy sector and at the same time has sent signals toward Washington, which is focused on developments in Iran, seeking a return to negotiations.

Against this backdrop, according to reports, doubts are growing over the political stability of the 74-year-old Russian president, to the point that his future has become part of betting markets as well.

The $400,000 bet on Putin’s removal

On the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket, an anonymous user has placed approximately $409,000 on the scenario that Vladimir Putin will no longer be president of Russia by December 31, 2026.

As NBC News reports, the bet was placed by an account named “ZnotluvuiSamez,” which uses the Ukrainian flag as its profile picture. This user has made other bets related to the war in Ukraine, but this is the largest so far. On Thursday morning alone, another new bet of $50,000 was added.

Despite this, the rest of the market does not view this scenario with the same confidence. Estimates by Polymarket participants show that Putin has only a 12% chance of leaving the presidency before 2030.

If this prediction proves accurate, the anonymous player could collect as much as $2.5 million.

The second-largest bet by the same user is $61,000 on the possibility that Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year, a development that the market also assigns only a 12% probability.

This account was created in April of this year and is linked to a profile on X that has no posts.

Forbes: Putin is facing existential problems

The analysis published by Forbes says the Russian president is facing existential problems on several fronts at once.

According to the magazine, developments in the war are weighing more and more heavily on the Kremlin and damaging Putin’s legitimacy, while domestic discontent is growing. Among the signs cited is a viral video by Russian military blogger Alexander Lunin, who warned of an uprising.

Forbes notes that public anger is increasing because of forced mobilization and shortages, while historical comparisons with previous collapses of Russian regimes after failed wars are also returning to the spotlight.

The analysis also stresses that political and security elites, worried about their own survival, could turn against Putin, opening the possibility of internal clashes.

The American magazine lists several scenarios for Putin’s political end, ranging from an assassination attempt to a show trial. Among the factors that could accelerate these developments are new Ukrainian attacks, domestic unrest and a change in China’s stance.

Crimea and the Kerch Bridge under pressure

Forbes underlines that Crimea is facing major fuel supply problems as a result of continuous drone attacks by Ukraine.

Images of long lines of vehicles leaving the peninsula at the height of the tourist season create, according to the analysis, a negative picture for Moscow.

One of the most important supply corridors currently remains the Kerch Bridge. Although it has been struck several times, it remains operational. Trucks crossing there with fuel are considered sensitive targets, while Ukrainian intelligence sources claim the bridge continues to be part of Kyiv’s military plans.

According to the analysis, the war Russia launched four and a half years ago could end as a strategic catastrophe for the Kremlin, while Putin is increasingly losing the ability to control public perception.

Alexander Lunin’s videos and comparisons with Prigozhin

A few days ago, Russian military blogger Alexander Lunin, a veteran of the war in Ukraine, published a video warning of an uprising and calling for a televised meeting with Putin.

He said he possessed important secrets involving senior officials and wanted to present them to the Russian president. The video received nearly 11 million views.

Later, he published another video in a softer tone. But images then circulated showing a group of soldiers supporting him and threatening to turn their weapons against officers, whom they accused of mistreatment.

Lunin was arrested and is in prison, while his case has once again brought to mind the uprising led by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

At the same time, videos continue to circulate showing Ukrainian attacks on military bases, energy facilities and fuel depots near Moscow, as well as footage of Russian citizens protesting fuel shortages and claims of forced mobilizations.

Forbes recalls that in modern Russian history, regime changes have come after major wars, such as World War I and the war in Afghanistan.

“The Ceausescu scenario”

The analysis also examines the so-called “Ceausescu scenario,” under which Putin could face a show trial and then be eliminated politically or physically, while most of the elite would remain in power.

This scenario has returned to discussion after the mysterious death of Sergei Ivanov on June 26, at the age of 73. Ivanov was seen as one of Putin’s closest associates since the 1970s and was often mentioned as a possible successor.

The Kremlin announced his death without revealing the cause, while Ivanov had maintained strong ties with the FSB even after leaving official duties.

According to Forbes, such events increase uncertainty within the elites, as potential rivals may consider themselves at risk and move preemptively.

The analysis lists as factors that could accelerate developments new Ukrainian attacks on Moscow, food shortages, separatist uprisings in regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan or Chechnya, as well as a major Ukrainian operation in Crimea.

China factor

Another key element of the Forbes analysis is China’s position.

According to the magazine, if Beijing concludes that a weakened Putin no longer serves its strategic interests, it could further reduce its economic and political support for Moscow.

China, according to the analysis, has already significantly reduced its support for the Russian economy and has refused to finance the “Siberia 2” gas pipeline project, which would directly link it to Russia.

In conclusion, Forbes argues that if the current situation continues or worsens further, Vladimir Putin could face political downfall within the next three years.