First polls in Saxony-Anhalt: AfD expected to win 44.5%, while Merz’s CDU gets only 18.5%

The first poll results after voting closed in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections put the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the lead with 44.5% of the vote, according to ARD data.

The CDU is projected to secure 18.5%, halving its support compared with the 2021 election. Meanwhile, the Left is estimated at 9.5%, the Greens at 9% and the SPD at 8%, with relatively small changes.

According to the projected distribution of seats, the AfD could win 39 seats, the CDU 16, the Left 8, while the Greens and SPD would each receive 7 seats. The BSW is projected to secure 5 seats.

The Saxony-Anhalt state parliament has 83 seats, and at least 42 seats are required to form a majority.

Compared with the 2021 election, the AfD has recorded an increase of 23.7%, coming close to doubling its previous result. By contrast, the CDU has lost 18.6%, or half of its strength. The decline in support has been more limited for the Left, at 1.5%, and the SPD, at 0.4%.

This is the first time that a far-right force in Germany has come so close to the possibility of forming a government at state level.

Polls conducted before the end of the voting process also put the AfD close to the 40% mark. Now, the main question expected to be answered by the end of election night is whether the party will cross the threshold for governing alone.