AfD’s possible victory in Saxony-Anhalt alarms Berlin over security, the army and NATO

Just two days before the election in Saxony-Anhalt, the possibility of an AfD victory has caused concern in Berlin, not only because of its political consequences. For the first time in postwar Germany, the far right could take control of a state, gaining influence over intelligence services, classified information and defense matters.

The far-right party is leading by a wide margin in the polls for Saxony-Anhalt and aims to set an entirely new precedent by leading a German regional government for the first time. This prospect has put security institutions on alert.

The AfD’s platform envisages reorganizing the local branch of Germany’s domestic intelligence service, the BfV, which has itself classified the party’s organization in Saxony-Anhalt as right-wing extremist. If it takes power, the AfD could interfere in the leadership of the service, replace its directors and shift the focus from right-wing extremism to left-wing radicalism.

The risk seen as most serious concerns access to secret information. German politicians warn that AfD representatives could be able to view sensitive data on extremism, potential attacks and hybrid threats. Suspicions have been heightened by the party’s support for closer ties with Moscow and its opposition to Germany’s aid for Ukraine.

The situation has also raised concerns at the Defense Ministry. Saxony-Anhalt is home to bases and training grounds used by the German army, while Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has called for people who could become AfD ministers to be denied access to classified material.

According to reports in the German media, Berlin is also assessing measures for emergency situations, including the possibility that a regional government might attempt to obstruct the movement of NATO troops. Experts say that transferring secret data to Russia would be considered treason and view such a possibility as unlikely. Nevertheless, an AfD victory on Sunday could shift the conflict between Berlin and the far right from the political debate to the heart of Germany’s security institutions.