Experts Warn: Areas Affected by Wildfires in Europe Could Increase by 39%

By the end of this century, wildfires could affect 39% more European territory, even if the world achieves the most optimistic scenario for limiting global warming. This is the conclusion of a recent study, which emphasizes that better fire management could slow, but not stop, this trend.

Extreme temperatures, drought and strong winds are creating conditions in which even small fires can quickly turn into powerful wildfires. According to the most severe scenario analyzed by the researchers, in which global warming would reach 3.6°C above preindustrial levels, the burned area would almost triple.

However, investments in fire management could reduce this increase by more than 70%, although they would not be able to eliminate it completely. “Investments in fire management can help up to a point, but if we continue on a high-emissions pathway, we will still see major increases in the burned area,” said Maik Billing, an ecosystem researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the study’s lead author.

“Fire management cannot replace measures to curb climate change.” The study is being published as wildfires continue to affect various parts of Europe. After weeks of major fires in France, Spain, Italy, Croatia and Greece, the flames have also reached northern European countries, including the United Kingdom, Belgium and Germany.

Data published today by the European Forest Fire Information Service show that this year’s season across the EU is expected to be the third-worst on record, after those of 2025 and 2022. So far, wildfires have affected more than 600,000 hectares, while Belgium, France and Slovakia have recorded records for this time of year.