Elderly Outnumber Children / BIRN: Urban Index Shows an Albania Emptying Out at the Periphery

Pensioners enjoy the sunshine and high temperatures in Skanderbeg Square park in central Tirana. The Rama government has allocated a spring bonus for pensioners, the distribution of which began on Monday, March 3, 2025.

Documents accompanying the new territorial reform proposed by the ruling majority reveal a stark demographic divide across the country.

Emigration and internal migration have emptied small towns and rural areas, while residents and economic activity have become concentrated in a limited number of urban centers.

One of the documents, “Administrative-Territorial Reform 2.0,” drafted by Socialist Party experts on the Special Parliamentary Committee, identifies a series of local government units with recurring operational, economic, demographic and financial problems. These data are being used to justify reconfiguring the territorial map.

The report is based on three indices that present a polarized picture of municipalities in demographic, economic and functional terms.

On one side are several urban centers where the population and economic development are concentrated, while on the other is the periphery, particularly the northeast, southeast and mountainous areas.

These territories face population decline and aging, subsistence economies with few formal jobs, and budgets dependent on the central government that are used mainly to pay local government employees.

The Urban Mass Index, or IMU, is one of the three analyses underpinning the proposal for a new map with 46 municipalities. Under this plan, 15 local government units would be merged with larger municipalities within the same county.

The index documents Albania’s territorial changes since the 1990s and shows that the number of growing centers is shrinking, while the number of municipalities losing residents is rising.

The processed data divide the country into three realities: a very small number of municipalities that continue to attract residents and economic activity, a group of units with intermediate potential, and most of the territory, which is losing its critical population mass.

The analysis, based on data from the 2023 Census and included in the reform’s technical report, suggests that Albania’s population is becoming concentrated in an ever-smaller number of urban centers.

Meanwhile, the rest of the territory is losing residents, functions and development opportunities. Only 13 municipalities are classified as having high urban mass, but they are home to 62.5% of the country’s population.

Thirty municipalities, nearly half of the administrative map, are ranked at the low level and are home to only 14.2% of the population. Another 18 municipalities fall into the intermediate or medium category.

The capital remains the main center of population concentration, with more than half a million residents. After Tirana, by a considerable margin, come the municipalities of Durrës, Vlorë, Elbasan, Shkodër, Fier, Kamëz and Berat.

At the opposite end of the demographic ranking are Pustec, Libohovë, Himarë, Këlcyrë, Memaliaj, Selenicë, Dropull, Finiq, Delvinë and Kolonjë. According to the index, these municipalities have lost weight both in terms of population and urban importance.

The IMU does not assess population size alone. Its calculations also include actual residential density, the distribution of residents across the territory, the demographic dependency ratio and the level of urbanization. As a result, a municipality covering a large area may be considered structurally weak if its residents are concentrated in a small town and the rest of its territory has been left empty.

One of the analysis’s main findings is that, on average, 57% of the territory is uninhabited. Nationwide, the “Gini” coefficient, which measures the ratio of residents per square kilometer, reaches 0.86. This figure indicates that the population is concentrated in a few areas while large parts of the country are being emptied.

This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in Kolonjë and Korçë, where the indicator reaches 0.97. Although these municipalities cover large territories, residents are concentrated in several urban areas. Kamëz Municipality has the lowest value, at 0.42, indicating that its territory is inhabited. Overall, the data also point to the aging of municipal populations, while an average of around 57% of a municipality’s territory is empty.

The dependency ratio, which measures the burden of children and elderly people on the working-age population, is above the national average in most municipalities—51 of them. In many local government units, the number of elderly people has surpassed the number of children.

Urbanization levels are also low. Across 60 municipalities, excluding Tirana from the analysis, the average rate is 29.8%. Moreover, 25 municipalities do not have a single settlement that meets the criteria to be classified as a town. According to this assessment, only 6 municipalities can be classified as cities, 13 as towns/peripheral areas and 42 as rural.

This demographic change is one of the arguments put forward by the Socialists on the Special Parliamentary Committee on Territorial Reform, who support the creation of a new map with 46 municipalities.

The Socialist Party document notes that the population distribution is no longer what it was in 2014, when the current administrative-territorial division was approved with the aim of creating larger and more efficient municipalities. The report emphasizes that some areas have expanded, while others have lost a significant share of their residents. As a result, some municipalities face difficulties securing sustainable funding, qualified staff and administrative capacity.

The report acknowledges that the problem is not related solely to administrative boundaries. Population movement toward larger centers, demographic aging, territorial inequalities and economic concentration have changed the way municipalities function. The document stresses that changing boundaries is not enough to resolve the challenges associated with emigration, population aging and economic concentration.

The Socialists have submitted a bill to Parliament to reorganize the administrative-territorial map, providing for the merger of several small units with larger municipalities. However, the proposal does not explain how the new map would resolve these problems.

Under the proposal, Fushë-Arrëz, Klos, Rrogozhinë, Dimal, Poliçan, Patos, Divjakë, Selenicë, Maliq, Këlcyrë, Memaliaj, Libohovë, Cërrik, Belsh and Prrenjas would lose their status as independent local self-government units and be merged with larger neighboring municipalities.

The plan has been opposed by residents of these areas, who have staged protests. They say that dissolving the local government units would leave them without access to public services.