Economy, immigration and Musk’s support: how the AfD is expanding in Germany

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is strengthening its position on the German political scene, while the traditional parties, particularly Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, are facing increasingly poor results in state elections.

In the September 20 election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD came first with approximately 37% of the vote, ahead of the Social Democrats, who received around 35.5%. The CDU, led by Merz, secured only about 5.5%, a result that, if ultimately confirmed, would be its worst in a state election since 1949.

The situation is different in Berlin, where The Left won around 24.5% of the vote and emerged as the leading party. The CDU received around 20%, while the AfD secured nearly 16%, rising significantly from the 9.1% it had won in the previous election.

These developments followed elections held just two weeks earlier in Saxony-Anhalt. There, the AfD won 43.8% of the vote, compared with the CDU’s 17.2%, and secured 39 of the 83 seats, coming close to an absolute majority.

Friedrich Merz described the result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a “catastrophe.” However, the chancellor said he had no intention of stepping down from his post or abandoning his reform agenda. Eight CDU state premiers have publicly expressed their support for him.

The AfD’s growing strength cannot be explained solely by its positions on immigration. Voters’ main concerns also include the rising cost of living, energy and fuel prices, job insecurity and the problems facing German industry.

The German Economic Institute, IW, has raised its forecast for economic growth in 2026 to around 1.2%. Despite this, the institute has warned that high energy costs, low levels of private investment, job losses and inflation above 2.5% continue to weigh on households’ purchasing power.

The automotive industry is among the sectors feeling these difficulties most acutely. Volkswagen has begun a sweeping restructuring, while Bosch has projected up to 13,000 job cuts in its automotive division. At the same time, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are grappling with high production costs, growing competition from China and technological changes in the industry.

Economic problems are particularly acute in the former East Germany. Although gaps in wages and employment have narrowed since the country’s reunification, the average net wealth of households in the East remains around half that of households in West Germany.

Another factor that has helped draw greater attention to the AfD is Elon Musk’s open support.

In December 2024, Musk wrote on the X platform that “only the AfD can save Germany.” A month later, in January 2025, he held a live conversation on the same platform with party leader Alice Weidel and urged Germans to support the AfD. He later addressed a party rally in Halle by video.

After the AfD’s result in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, Musk commented on a post by Weidel with the German expression “Gut gemacht!”, meaning “Well done!”

Ulrich Sigmund, the AfD candidate, publicly thanked the American businessman for his support. He also spoke about the possibility of future cooperation, particularly to create more favorable conditions for private investment in Germany.

Musk’s role is especially significant because of his ties to the automotive sector. Tesla operates a manufacturing plant in Grünheide, near Berlin, while the company has planned to expand its operations and increase production in Germany.

Despite the public exposure Musk has given the AfD, there is no data showing how many voters have been directly influenced by his support. Nor has any documented financial donation from him to the party been disclosed.

The latest results suggest that the AfD is no longer a force confined solely to the territory of the former East Germany. Its electoral base has expanded and, according to data cited by Reuters ahead of the September 20 election, the party was polling nationally at between 27% and 29%, while the CDU stood at 18%-20%.

However, the AfD continues to be excluded from cooperation with the country’s main parties. Its positions on immigration, relations with Russia, the European Union and the euro are among the reasons other parties have cited to justify rejecting any political cooperation with it.

The result in Berlin shows that the shift among voters is not solely toward the right. The Left came first in the capital, where housing and rising rents were among the main issues of the campaign.

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the latest results translate into increased pressure on the government. Germany is simultaneously facing economic difficulties, problems in the automotive industry, heated debates over immigration and uncertainty in the energy sector.

As the AfD builds broader electoral support, it remains unclear how this force will affect the functioning of Germany’s political system as long as the other parties continue to rule out the possibility of cooperating with it.