Strong dissatisfaction with Merz government shifts political balance, AfD overtakes CDU/CSU with historic record

The AfD has reached the highest level of support ever recorded in the “ARD-DeutschlandTrend” poll, while the CDU/CSU Union continues to lose ground among voters.

The latest measurement conducted by the Infratest dimap institute on political and social trends in Germany confirms the development observed in recent months. Compared to the federal elections of February 2025, the balance of power between the CDU/CSU and the AfD has now been reversed. In those elections, the CDU/CSU Union received 28.5 percent of the vote, while the AfD secured 20.8 percent.

Asked which party they would vote for if elections were held next Sunday, 21 percent of respondents said they would back the CDU/CSU, a drop of 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. The AfD, meanwhile, rose by 1 point to reach 28 percent. For this political force, this is the highest figure ever measured by the “ARD-DeutschlandTrend.”

Over the period since the elections nearly a year and a half ago, not only the conservative CDU/CSU camp but also the Social Democratic Party SPD have lost support among the electorate.

Dissatisfaction with the government has benefited the AfD above all. However, the Greens and the Left Party, Die Linke, have also increased their number of supporters compared to the election period.

In the current results, the SPD remains unchanged at 12 percent. The Greens stand at 15 percent, the Left Party at 11 percent, while the liberal FDP gets 4 percent.

The representative Infratest dimap poll surveyed 1,297 eligible voters.

Dissatisfaction with government

The cabinet reshuffle by Chancellor Merz does not appear to have brought any improvement in the public perception of the government and the chancellor himself.

More than two-thirds of participants predict that, even after the personnel changes, the federal government will continue to perform as poorly as before, according to 57 percent of them, or will function even worse, as 11 percent believe. Only about a quarter are optimistic: 12 percent expect the government to work better, and another 12 percent think its performance will remain as good as it has been so far.

Söder, Merz, Bas and Klingbeil at a press conference

Only 13 percent make up the group of those who are very satisfied or satisfied with the work of the federal government. On the other hand, an overwhelming majority of 85 percent expresses dissatisfaction.

Strong need for change

The growing desire for change is another factor fueling dissatisfaction with the government. A radical transformation in Germany is called for by 55 percent of the population, i.e. more than half. This figure is 7 percentage points higher than in December 2024.

Such demands are particularly strong among AfD voters, reaching 86 percent, and among those of the Left Party, Die Linke, at 71 percent. Although these two camps conceive political change in very different ways, both assess that the current government is not fulfilling their political ideas and objectives. /DW