UN Seeks to Revive Cyprus Peace Talks 52 Years After Division

Next week, the United Nations Secretary-General will travel to Cyprus in an effort to break the deadlock in the long-running peace process. What does the initiative involve, and why is it being undertaken now?

On July 20, 1974, 52 years ago, the invasion of Cyprus began, leading to the island’s division. Even after five decades, the Cyprus issue remains one of the world’s longest-running and still unresolved conflicts. The United Nations announced last week that Antonio Guterres will visit Cyprus from July 27 to 29. It will be the first visit to the island by a UN Secretary-General in 16 years and is intended to give fresh impetus to the stalled peace process.

The United Nations’ new initiative, launched after the expanded informal meeting on Cyprus held in Geneva in March, is expected to culminate with Guterres’ visit.

Since that meeting, Maria Angela Holguin, the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy, has held extensive consultations in Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, the United Kingdom and Brussels. Their purpose has been to determine whether the necessary political conditions exist to restart effective negotiations. During his visit, Guterres will meet separately with the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, and the Turkish Cypriot leader, Tufan Erhurman.

On July 29, the two leaders are expected to hold a joint meeting with the UN chief. The talks will take place at the residence of the United Nations Special Representative, within the UN-controlled buffer zone.

The last visit to Cyprus by a UN Secretary-General took place in 2010. At the time, Ban Ki-moon sought to give momentum to negotiations between the then President of the Republic of Cyprus, Demetris Christofias, and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat.

Christofias and Talat represented left-wing parties that supported the creation of a bizonal, bicommunal federation. They were widely viewed as leaders with the political will needed to reach a comprehensive agreement.

However, just a few months later, the momentum faded. Talat was defeated by Dervis Eroglu in the Turkish Cypriot leadership election, while the main issues dividing the sides remained unresolved at the negotiating table.

Before Ban Ki-moon’s involvement, Kofi Annan had led an intensive effort between 2002 and 2004. During that period, the UN launched what was then its most ambitious initiative to mediate a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem.

Annan became directly involved in the negotiations and presented several revised versions of the proposal that later became known as the “Annan Plan.” The process ended with simultaneous referendums held in April 2004. A majority of Turkish Cypriot voters backed the plan, while 75.8% of Greek Cypriot voters rejected it.

News of Guterres’ trip emerged at a time when reports suggest that the United Nations may be considering a new framework for resolving the Cyprus issue. The debate intensified after the British newspaper “The Independent” reported on July 12 that Holguin was preparing a revised proposal.

According to the newspaper, the model set out in the relevant UN Security Council resolutions—a bizonal, bicommunal federation—would remain in place. However, the two constituent states would be granted a significantly greater degree of autonomy, while the federal government’s powers would be reduced.

The report claims that, in exchange for expanded autonomy, the Turkish Cypriot side would accept territorial changes. These would include the return of the closed-off city of Varosha and the city of Morphou. New security arrangements are also reportedly under consideration that would allow Greek and Turkish troops to maintain their presence on the island, but under NATO command.

“The Independent” writes that the proposal seeks to narrow the gap between the Greek Cypriot position in favor of a federal settlement and Turkey’s continued support for a two-state model. The United Nations has neither denied nor confirmed the report. Asked about the matter, President Christodoulides said that “not everything reported by the newspaper is accurate,” adding that he expects further developments in the coming period.

Although Guterres’ visit has raised expectations, diplomatic sources say his immediate objective is not to consider a detailed settlement plan.

Diplomats who spoke to DW believe the most likely outcome of next week’s meetings will be the announcement of another expanded informal meeting. It is expected to include the leaders of Cyprus’s two communities, representatives of Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, as well as the UN.

According to the same sources, the meeting could be held in late August or in the first days of September. This time, unlike previous informal formats, the United Nations appears to be seeking a more clearly structured process, with concrete steps and defined deadlines.

Guterres’ renewed focus on Cyprus is inevitably also linked to the final months of his second term, which ends in December. However, diplomatic sources believe the initiative is not explained solely by his limited time remaining in office, but is also underpinned by deeper reasons.

According to them, circumstances that could allow for a new political dialogue are emerging for the first time in many years. Tufan Erhurman’s election as Turkish Cypriot leader last October is considered a decisive factor. His predecessor, Ersin Tatar, supported a two-state solution, while Erhurman has expressed readiness to return to negotiations on the basis of a bizonal, bicommunal federation.

This development does not signal a change in Turkey’s official position, nor does it resolve the long-standing disputes over security, guarantees, political equality and the continued presence of Turkish troops on the island. Nevertheless, it has given the UN an opportunity to assess whether a serious return to talks may now be possible.

Konstantinos Letymbiotis, spokesperson for the Cypriot government, says Guterres’ trip should also be viewed in the context of intensified international diplomatic activity concerning Cyprus. “The Secretary-General’s initiative, the European Union’s stronger engagement and the appointment of Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto as the EU’s envoy for Cyprus are creating new momentum,” he told DW.

On July 8, European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discussed the United Nations initiative with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. They urged Ankara to make use of the new diplomatic momentum created around the Cyprus issue.

A few days later, the European Commission appointed Raffaele Fitto as its special representative for the Cyprus problem. The appointment was widely seen as an indication of Brussels’ intention to play a more influential role in the process. At the same time, it underscores that any future agreement must be fully compliant with European Union law.

The EU’s greater engagement is closely intertwined with the broader relationship between the European Union and Turkey. From Brussels’ perspective, progress on the Cyprus issue could help cooperation with Ankara in several important sectors. Conversely, the lack of results remains one of the main obstacles to a meaningful improvement in relations between the European Union and Turkey. /DW