Showdown over Hormuz, Iran partially loses control as the US gains ground

The Strait of Hormuz has turned into a decisive conflict zone between Iran and the United States. The latest data signals that Tehran is losing part of its influence over this strategic corridor for global oil transport.

The maritime traffic monitoring company Kpler reports that, over the past two weeks, more than 80% of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz chose the route near Oman. This channel is authorized by the UN, although Iran strongly opposes it.

A month ago, the picture was completely different, as almost no traffic was recorded on the Omani sea route.

Iran claims that the strait is under its control and has struck dozens of ships that tried to use this route. Despite the threat, most vessels are not complying with Tehran’s demands and are continuing their passage, relying on the protection of U.S. naval forces.

“It increasingly looks as though Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.

The diversion of ships away from Iran’s favored route has also reduced Tehran’s ability to impose fees on vessels passing through the strait, a practice it had followed during the spring.

Experts say the expiration this week of the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran theoretically allows Tehran to impose fees again. However, so far there is no indication that Iranian authorities are actually managing to collect them.

Meanwhile, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered some of the world’s largest supertankers, aiming to get oil out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to specialists, after leaving the strait, these supertankers transfer their cargo to other ships in the Gulf of Oman, outside the area considered dangerous.

Some of these ships disable their transponders to avoid Iranian attacks, disappearing for weeks at a time from traditional tracking systems. This practice is called “dark traffic” and not all monitoring platforms manage to detect it fully.

The U.S., which maintains a considerable military presence in the region, says it has a much broader picture of ship movements in the strait.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that, over the course of a week, the volume of oil transported through the strait, together with amounts rerouted around it, reached about 15 million barrels per day.

This volume is approaching the average of about 20 million barrels per day that passed through the area before the start of the war.

Based on these data, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts, however, have questioned that claim. Iran continues its attacks, while oil traffic still remains significantly below pre-war levels.

These circumstances show that the U.S. does not exercise full control over the strait, but at the same time Iran’s influence no longer appears to be at the same level as before.

“Iran appears to have partially lost control of the strait,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

In experts’ assessment, Iran’s main aim may not be to take absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz, but to hamper and threaten maritime traffic passing through it.