Serbia’s growing arsenal raises security concerns in the Balkans

Serbia’s rapid expansion of its military capabilities is causing concern in the Western Balkans, where security stability remains fragile. Belgrade’s investments in fighter jets, drones, missile systems and advanced weapons are being viewed as something more than ordinary military modernization.

Authorities and experts in the region are raising questions about the objectives of this policy and its potential impact on the military balance in Southeastern Europe. In Kosovo in particular, the continued strengthening of Serbia’s arsenal is being assessed as a factor that could increase security risks.

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković said Zagreb was closely monitoring the development, which he described as an extraordinary process of Serbia’s arming. He also used the phrase “shopping mania” to describe the situation.

Croatian Defence Minister Ivan Anušić also said that Serbia had been intensively acquiring advanced offensive systems for a decade. According to him, Croatia is aware of this process and is monitoring it closely.

Security experts in Kosovo argue that the expansion of Serbia’s military capabilities poses a threat to Kosovo’s security and a challenge to regional stability. They also assess that Belgrade is using the situation to justify the need to further strengthen its military, also referring to the Joint Cooperation Agreement in the field of defence between Albania, Croatia and Kosovo, signed in March last year.

“What is concerning is that they supposedly want some form of reciprocity following the military agreement between Albania, Kosovo and Croatia, as if to justify the claim that they are being forced to take defensive measures… Serbia has territorial claims against Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro and also Macedonia,” said Nuredin Ibishi, a security expert.

According to expert assessments, Serbia’s arming should be analysed not only as an effort to modernize its forces, but also in the context of the history of conflicts in the Balkans, where Serbia has repeatedly been regarded as a source of destabilization.

“I think the Croatian defence minister’s latest statement was the strongest direct response to Serbia and the concerns Serbia is causing in the region, seeking to gain primacy in armaments over the countries of the region, supposedly because there is some threat, when it is perfectly clear that no one in the region is threatening it…” said Arben Dashevci, a security expert.

Several months ago, Serbia also purchased additional missile systems from China, including supersonic ballistic missiles. According to security assessments, the purchase represents not only another step in military modernization, but is also seen as a signal of pressure on neighbouring countries and an attempt to alter the security balance in the Western Balkans.