Serbia after the Student List’s victory: Could its approach to dialogue with Kosovo change?

The Student List’s victory in Serbia has brought renewed attention to political developments in Belgrade and the impact they could have on relations with Kosovo. Expectations center mainly on the formation of a new Serbian government and the policy it will pursue in the dialogue to normalize relations between the two countries.

Kosovo’s Minister for Communities and Returns, Nenad Rashiq, has said the dialogue could resume once new institutions are established in Serbia. According to him, the process is also linked to Serbia’s progress toward European integration.

However, it remains unclear whether political changes in Belgrade will bring a new approach to Kosovo or whether previous policies, which have hindered progress in the dialogue, will continue.

Bukuroca: The students’ victory could create room for dialogue, but the Kosovo issue remains complicated

Commentator Lis Bukuroca believes the Student List’s victory could create conditions for Serbia to take a more democratic and pro-European direction. Speaking to “Bota sot,” he said the impact of this development on relations with Kosovo cannot yet be determined with certainty.

According to him, some of the students’ statements and their stated outlook offer grounds for cautious optimism. He believes political changes could improve Serbia’s relations with neighboring countries, particularly the former Yugoslav republics, while the path concerning Kosovo will be much more difficult.

Bukuroca stresses that one of the main obstacles is Serbia’s Constitution, which treats Kosovo as part of Serbian territory. He also says deep political divisions within Serbian society make it harder to change the country’s position on Kosovo.

He adds that the Kosovo issue has long been used to mobilize nationalist sentiment and that new political forces, too, will face this reality if they come to power. For this reason, a change in Belgrade’s course is expected to be neither quick nor easy.

Nevertheless, if Serbia follows a democratic and pro-European path, conditions could emerge for the dialogue to resume, for greater cooperation and for trust between the two peoples to be gradually rebuilt. According to Bukuroca, the dialogue should resolve concrete problems rather than remain merely a formal process.

Analyzing Serbian President Aleksandar Vuçiq’s reaction to the election result, the commentator raises questions about his political calculations and possible future aims.

The fact that Vuçiq accepted the result without challenging the process may, according to Bukuroca, be connected to efforts to preserve his political influence. He does not rule out the possibility that the Serbian president may seek to enter a presidential race again, if constitutional circumstances allow it.

As for the new government and its willingness to normalize relations with Kosovo, Bukuroca says political statements are not enough. The real test, he says, will be resuming the dialogue, implementing the agreements reached and accepting that Serbia’s European prospects will remain limited without a lasting settlement with Kosovo.

He believes European integration could benefit from political changes in Serbia, but that this will not happen automatically. Progress will depend on respect for democratic standards, a stronger rule of law, functioning institutions and a willingness to normalize relations with Kosovo.

Another factor that must be considered, according to Bukuroca, is Russia’s influence on Serbian politics. Although the students have called for democratic institutions and the rule of law, political and ideological currents with close ties to, or a strong affinity for, Russia remain present in Serbian society.

For this reason, it remains an open question what direction the student movement will take and how much influence it will have on the country’s future politics.

Bukuroca believes the Student List’s victory could open new possibilities for relations in the Balkans, but only if it is accompanied by a change in state policy toward Kosovo. He distinguishes between a change in political actors and a change in state policy.

According to him, what will matter most for Kosovo is whether Belgrade abandons its policy of confrontation and builds relations based on mutual respect. Only then, he emphasizes, would it be possible to speak of a genuine turning point, concrete results in the dialogue and better European prospects for both countries.

The commentator considers the European Union’s support for Vuçiq a major mistake. In his view, the EU has hindered change in Serbia over the past decade.

Gashi: A change of government does not necessarily mean a change in policy toward Kosovo

Analyst Eduard Gashi considers the Student List’s victory an important development for Serbian politics, but warns that the result does not guarantee a change in Belgrade’s position toward Kosovo.

Speaking to “Bota sot,” Gashi said the problem between Kosovo and Serbia is not tied solely to one leader or one ruling party. According to him, it stems from the Serbian state’s position on the Republic of Kosovo’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

He believes the Student List’s result shows that political change in Serbia is possible through democratic processes. Nevertheless, removing one political group from power, while important for domestic democracy, is not in itself a guarantee of a new policy toward Kosovo.

Gashi notes that statements made so far by Student List representatives continue to refer to the Serbian Constitution, which considers Kosovo part of Serbia. Some of them have also indicated that they may review previous agreements.

According to the analyst, this shows that Serbia’s domestic democratization and its acceptance of Kosovo’s statehood are two separate processes and should not be equated.

The formation of a new government in Belgrade could, according to Gashi, create room for a new diplomatic dynamic. Nevertheless, he considers Serbia’s willingness to implement agreements and respect Kosovo’s sovereignty decisive.

He emphasizes that the main question is not only whether the parties will return to the dialogue table, but whether Belgrade will move from rhetoric about normalization to concrete implementation of agreements and respect for Kosovo’s sovereignty.

The 2023 Brussels Agreement and the Ohrid Annex contain clear obligations. These include developing good-neighborly relations on the basis of equal rights, respecting each other’s documents and symbols, and Serbia’s not opposing Kosovo’s membership in international organizations.

According to Gashi, implementing these obligations will be one of the main measures of the next Serbian government’s seriousness.

The analyst believes the European Union should maintain a consistent position on Serbia’s European prospects and demand concrete results in the normalization process.

European integration, he says, cannot rest solely on political statements or a formal willingness to engage in dialogue. It must be accompanied by respect for the rule of law, good-neighborly relations and the fulfillment of international obligations.

Gashi points out that normalizing relations with Kosovo is a direct part of Serbia’s EU accession negotiations.

Another test for the new government will be its position on the armed attack in Banjska and its cooperation with the justice system to establish full responsibility. According to Gashi, trust between the two states cannot be built without accountability, security and respect for the legal order.

Meanwhile, he believes Kosovo, too, must continue to demonstrate its commitment to European values, the rule of law and the protection of the rights of all communities, including the Serbian community.

Gashi stresses that such a commitment is not a concession to Belgrade, but a democratic state’s responsibility to its citizens.

In his view, the dialogue should not become a process for renegotiating Kosovo’s statehood. It should serve to build normal relations between two states, while the independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Kosovo cannot depend on electoral changes in Belgrade.

The analyst believes recent developments in Serbia should be followed attentively and with diplomatic readiness, but also with political realism. Willingness to normalize relations, he says, should be measured not by the age, profile or rhetoric of new leaders, but by their concrete decisions and actions.

He concludes that long-term peace and stability in the Western Balkans require not only changes of government, but also changes in the political positions that have hindered good-neighborly relations.

According to Gashi, Serbia does not need to give up its dignity to respect Kosovo. For him, accepting the reality of Kosovo’s statehood and building relations on the basis of equality would be important steps toward a shared European future.