Security expert explains the message behind Serbia’s largest military exercise

On June 28, the Serbian Army is expected to organize a military exercise at the “Pasuljanske Livade” training ground, precisely on Vidovdan, a day in Serbia associated with the anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo. During this event, according to announcements, the newest weaponry available to the Serbian armed forces will also be presented.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has announced that this exercise will be the most important one the Serbian army has conducted so far.

June 28, known as Vidovdan, holds a special place in Serbia’s historical and national memory, as it is linked to the 1389 Battle of Kosovo and is considered one of the most significant dates in the Serbian political and historical calendar.

Regarding this development, security expert Drizan Shala says that the choice of June 28 for organizing the largest exercise of the Serbian Army carries powerful political symbolism, especially in relation to Kosovo.

He stresses, however, that a professional assessment cannot rely only on the symbolic weight of the date, but must also examine the military units involved and the operational scenario in order to understand the true objective of this exercise.

“There is no doubt that the choice of June 28 — Vidovdan — for holding the largest exercise of the Serbian Army carries strong political and historical symbolism. This date is part of Serbian national identity, and its use for a demonstration of military power conveys a political message, both to the domestic public and to the region, particularly to Kosovo. However, a professional security analysis cannot rely only on symbolism. To understand the real purpose of the exercise, the military elements that make it up must be analyzed.

First, it must be identified which units are taking part in the exercise. Are infantry brigades, mechanized and armored units, artillery, special forces, military aviation, air defense, or electronic warfare components involved? The structure of the participating force is the first indicator of the nature of the exercise.

Second, the operational scenario must be analyzed. Is it simulating territorial defense, a counteroffensive, offensive operations, the seizure and holding of an objective, the neutralization of a command center, deep operations, or the integration of fire between ground and air forces? Only an analysis of the tactical mission can show which capabilities are being tested,” he says.

Shala further says that to decode the real purpose of the exercise, the functioning of the command system, intelligence, electronic warfare, logistical support, and the pace of mobilization must also be examined.

According to him, only a full analysis at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels can determine whether this is a show of force, a raising of combat readiness, or the sending of a broader strategic message.

“Another key element is the command and control (C2) system, the integration of intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance (ISR), the use of electronic warfare (EW), logistical support, and the pace of mobilization. These components show whether we are dealing with a routine exercise, a show of force, or a test of operational readiness for more complex scenarios.

Only after these indicators are analyzed can an assessment be made on three levels:

• Tactical – what specific mission the units are practicing and what objectives they are simulating on the ground.

• Operational – whether the exercise demonstrates the ability to coordinate large formations and conduct combined operations.

• Strategic – what message Serbia aims to send through this exercise and how it relates to its security policy objectives.

Therefore, while the date of the exercise remains an element with clear political symbolism, a professional assessment must be based on an analysis of the force composition (Order of Battle – ORBAT), the operational scenario, the mission objectives, and the capabilities being tested. Only then can it be determined accurately whether the exercise is intended simply to demonstrate power, increase combat readiness, or send a broader strategic message,” he concludes for “Bota sot”.