Russian elections expected to preserve the balance of power as Kremlin seeks a strong message of support for Putin

Russia’s parliamentary elections are not expected to significantly alter the existing balance of power, but the vote carries particular significance for the Kremlin.

Steve Rosenberg writes in a BBC analysis that the Russian authorities intend to use the first parliamentary elections since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine to demonstrate support for Vladimir Putin and the war.

Around 450 lawmakers will be elected to the Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament. The new parliament is expected to remain under the control of the ruling United Russia party, together with political forces that support President Putin.

The BBC notes that the process is taking place within a system often described as a “managed democracy,” in which presidential power has been firmly consolidated and opportunities for the opposition remain limited. The Kremlin rejects this criticism, arguing that Russia has its own political system and electoral process.

The analysis highlights the case of the Yabloko party, which has called for a ceasefire in Ukraine. It was the only party registered for the elections as an anti-war force, but it was subsequently barred from the party race by a Supreme Court ruling.

However, some Yabloko candidates are continuing to run in individual constituencies. According to the BBC, several of them have been detained or faced legal proceedings by the authorities. Candidate Grigory Grishin told the BBC that police interventions were part of a “political order” and that those in power were setting the boundaries within which electoral competition was permitted to take place.

Another function of these elections is to promote veterans of the war in Ukraine into politics. Russian officials say that around 200 veterans are taking part in the race, while the Kremlin sees this as a way to integrate those who have served in the war into political life.

Meanwhile, the main parties represented in parliament continue to support the Kremlin’s position on the conflict in Ukraine.

Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party, told the BBC that all parties in the previous Duma had voted to approve hundreds of laws related to supporting the “special military operation.”

This demonstrates that ideological differences between parliamentary parties do not necessarily translate into opposing positions on the war.

While reporting in Dmitrov, a town near Moscow, the BBC found few signs of an intensive election campaign. In the town center stands a memorial dedicated to residents who have been killed in the war in Ukraine.

People interviewed there said that the conflict had affected their daily lives. Some said they wanted peace, while others expressed concern about security and drone attacks.

Residents questioned by the BBC also said that rising prices were directly affecting everyday life. Drone attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure have also contributed to fuel supply problems.

The BBC analysis emphasizes that there is little expectation of a major political transformation in Russia. Yabloko candidate Grishin described the role of Russian elections as different from that of elections in Western democracies. According to him, elections in Russia have not led to a change of government, but they may allow society to send a signal to those in power.

This is precisely why the vote is considered important for the Kremlin. Although the result is not expected to bring about a change in power, the elections may be used to showcase political support for Vladimir Putin and his policy on Ukraine.

In this context, as the BBC analysis concludes, the main question is not whether the elections will change those in power in Russia, but what message the result of the vote will send to the Kremlin.