Post-election deadlock in Israel: Netanyahu could remain prime minister without a parliamentary majority

Israel’s parliamentary elections have created a complicated situation: Benjamin Netanyahu has lost the majority he held, but could continue to lead the government if opposition parties fail to reach an agreement to form an alternative coalition.

With around 86% of the votes counted, projections from Israel’s three major television networks give Netanyahu’s coalition 53 seats in the Knesset, down from the 64 it previously held. The opposition bloc led by Gandhi Eisenkot is expected to win 48 seats, while parties representing Israel’s Arab citizens could secure a combined 19 seats in the 120-member parliament.

Forces opposed to Netanyahu could reach 67 seats, surpassing the threshold of 61 lawmakers needed to form a government. However, this paper majority does not automatically translate into a functioning coalition, because of divisions within the opposition over cooperation with Arab parties.

Under Israel’s political system, the outgoing prime minister remains in office until a new government is formed. Netanyahu could therefore remain at the helm of the executive even though he no longer has his previous parliamentary majority.

Analyses by Reuters and Axios suggest that, without an agreement, he could remain in office until a compromise is reached or new elections are held, potentially in 2027.

The result shows that Netanyahu’s coalition has lost a significant share of its parliamentary support, but performed better than some polls had predicted before the vote. At the same time, the opposition has failed to turn its opposition to the prime minister into a shared platform for governing.

The election also highlighted a shift to the right among Jewish voters and the weakening of the center-left as a distinct political force. Some parties opposed to Netanyahu hold positions similar to his on national security and the prospect of establishing an independent Palestinian state.

For this reason, the contest between Netanyahu and Eisenkot does not necessarily represent a deep ideological clash over the future of the Middle East. Part of the conflict concerns control of the government and responsibility for the security failures that preceded Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack.

Another significant development is the increased representation of Israel’s Arab citizens, who make up more than a fifth of the country’s population.

Voter turnout was 77.7%, the highest level in more than two decades. Mobilization among Arab voters helped boost the Joint List and the Ra’am party, which are expected to win a combined 19 seats in the Knesset.

The seats they have won make the Arab parties a decisive factor in any effort to form a new majority. However, some opposition parties continue to oppose including them in a governing agreement.

Yousef Jabarin, head of the Joint List, told Agence France-Presse that his party was ready to help remove Netanyahu but did not consider direct participation in a governing coalition possible under the current circumstances.

Jabarin cited the war in Gaza and developments in the West Bank, including the expansion of Israeli settlements and settler violence, as issues complicating the prospects for a political agreement.

However, he did not rule out the possibility of the party supporting an alternative government from outside the coalition, with the aim of ending the current government’s rule.

Such an arrangement could lead to a minority government led by Eisenkot, relying on the votes or parliamentary support of Arab parties without offering them ministerial posts.

That scenario also remains difficult. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman have opposed a government that would depend on the support of Arab parties.

The opposition is thus in a paradoxical position: it has the numbers to bring down Netanyahu but has yet to secure the political agreement needed to turn that advantage into a stable government.

Netanyahu meanwhile retains important powers in the field of national security, including decision-making on the conflict with Iran, according to experts cited by Reuters.

In a speech to Likud supporters shortly after 3:00 a.m. on Wednesday, he called for the formation of a “strong national right-wing government.” Netanyahu praised Israel’s military successes and spoke of the possibility of further joint action with the United States against Iran.

The prime minister described the situation as a “unique historic opportunity” to eliminate what he called the Iranian threat. These remarks do not signal the announcement of a new military operation, but show that national security remains at the center of his political message.

Eisenkot, meanwhile, warned that security issues should not be exploited for political gain. He urged leaders of the security institutions and civil services to stand firm against any attempt to challenge them.

Political uncertainty was also reflected in the financial markets. The shekel lost around 1.6%, reaching 3.10 shekels to the dollar, while the main Tel Aviv stock market indices fell by more than 3%, according to data reported in the election coverage.

The market declines reflect investors’ concerns about a prolonged political crisis and its potential impact on fiscal policy and the country’s economy.

In addition to trying to form a government, the opposition could use its numerical advantage to take control of Knesset institutions and advance parliamentary initiatives.

Axios has cited the establishment of a national commission of inquiry into the security failures ahead of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack as one possibility.

This could lead to an unusual situation in which Netanyahu remains prime minister while the parliamentary majority is made up of forces seeking his removal. Such an arrangement would make the government harder to run and intensify institutional clashes.

The next steps will also depend on Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s consultations with the political parties. Herzog has urged their leaders to seek compromise and avoid another election.

Possible options include a minority government led by Eisenkot, a broader coalition or a national unity government. The last scenario appears difficult, since Eisenkot has publicly pledged not to govern alongside Netanyahu.

If negotiations fail to produce a result and no candidate secures the support of at least 61 lawmakers, Israel could hold new elections in 2027. Until another government is formed, Netanyahu would remain in office.

The result has highlighted two parallel developments: the resilience of the right among Jewish voters and the increased political representation of Arab citizens. Neither trend, however, has produced a clear solution for governing the country.

Netanyahu has lost his parliamentary majority but could remain in power if his opponents fail to overcome their divisions. The opposition may have the numbers needed to remove him, but it still lacks a shared agreement on how to govern.

This deadlock is expected to shape political negotiations in Israel over the coming weeks.