NATO by 2028? Recognition and political stability remain the main tests for Kosovo

American professor Daniel Serwer has said that the next decisive stage for Kosovo is membership in NATO, adding that the Kosovo Security Force is expected to be ready for this step in 2028. According to him, the United States will need to persuade the four Alliance member states that still do not recognize Kosovo in order for them to accept it.

He told the newspaper “Bota sot” that membership in the European Union should not be delayed much beyond that either, provided the next government shows serious commitment to implementing legislation harmonized with the EU, which the Assembly has already approved.

According to Serwer, if Kosovo becomes part of NATO and the EU, the lack of UN membership would not carry much weight for it. He stressed that the latter is not expected to happen until Russia and Serbia undergo a democratic revival, something that, in his view, is difficult to imagine today.

The issue of Kosovo’s membership in NATO returned to the center of attention during the NATO summit in Turkey.

On Tuesday, Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten expressed his support for Kosovo’s European future. Asked whether Kosovo would one day become part of NATO, he voiced hope for such a development.

“I hope that Kosovo will become part of the European family one day,” the Dutch prime minister said.

Security expert Arben Dashevci, in comments to “Bota sot,” stressed that the road to NATO requires strong diplomatic engagement. According to him, Kosovo as a state and the US as a strategic partner must work to convince the four NATO member countries that still do not recognize Kosovo.

Dashevci said the facts are on Kosovo’s side and that diplomatic lobbying is therefore needed. He said that membership in the European Union should not be delayed much longer after that because, in his view, this achievement has been earned through merit, professional work and participation in peacekeeping missions. He added that the KSF has been wherever help has been requested and is now ready for any peacekeeping mission in the world, mentioning missions in the Falkland Islands, Turkey, Belize, Gibraltar, Albania and now the US-led mission in Gaza, among others.

According to him, US influence in persuading the four NATO countries that still do not recognize Kosovo is decisive. He also believes that entry into NATO would speed up Kosovo’s process of moving closer to the European Union.

“It is realistic and a golden opportunity for Kosovo to join NATO by the beginning of 2028, considering the end-of-year 2027 summit being held in Albania. This is a major opportunity for our country, but our politics and diplomacy must be far more active in lobbying. It must convince the non-recognizing countries in cooperation with the US and strategic partners. We must have stable institutions and not hold elections every six months; we need strategy and consolidation, institutional sustainability. The role of the United States in persuading the four NATO countries that still do not recognize Kosovo is crucial, decisive, I think. Membership in NATO would automatically speed up Kosovo’s path toward the European Union as well, and there is no doubt about that because when you are under the umbrella of collective security called NATO, we would automatically also be part of the 27 EU member states. We have the experience; they are here with their missions, and it is easier when they have been deployed in our country for 26 years,” the security expert stressed.

Meanwhile, Albanian political scientist in Brussels Ramadan Gjanaj told “Bota sot” that the goal of Kosovo joining NATO by 2028 is ambitious, but not impossible.

He explained that although from a military standpoint the KSF is continuing its transformation and, according to Kosovo authorities, is expected to reach full operational capacity by then, entry into NATO is not determined solely by technical or military criteria. According to him, the main difficulties are political in nature.

Gjanaj underlined that four NATO member states — Spain, Romania, Slovakia and Greece — continue not to recognize Kosovo’s independence, which makes it difficult to achieve the necessary consensus within the Alliance. He added that there is also a more fundamental limitation, as NATO, built on Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, is reluctant to admit a state whose status continues to be contested by its direct neighbor and where some sovereignty issues remain unresolved.

According to him, Kosovo is not in the same position as Ukraine, which is at war, but it still faces an unresolved political dispute with Serbia. This uncertainty, he said, leads some allies to be cautious.

The political scientist added that both NATO and the European Union have for decades followed the logic of “stability first,” aiming to integrate countries that increase the organization’s stability and to avoid bringing unresolved conflicts or territorial disputes into it.

To illustrate this approach, he mentioned the cases of Georgia and Ukraine before 2022, as well as the case of Croatia. According to him, Croatia’s negotiations for EU membership were blocked by Slovenia because of a border dispute, and only after the arbitration agreement in 2009 was the veto lifted, paving the way for Croatia to complete negotiations and join the EU in 2013.

Gjanaj stressed that the European Union did not necessarily require the final resolution of that dispute, but sought assurance that there was a credible mechanism to prevent it from later becoming an internal problem for the Union. According to him, Kosovo today faces an even more complex challenge, because this is not just about a border dispute, but about the fact that its status continues to be contested by Serbia and by some NATO and EU member states.

Asked about the role of the US in persuading the four NATO non-recognizing countries, Gjanaj said it would undoubtedly be decisive, but not sufficient in itself. According to him, Washington remains the actor with the greatest political and strategic weight in the Alliance, and if it were to consider Kosovo’s membership a strategic priority, it would have considerable ability to influence allies.

However, he stressed that each of the four states that do not recognize Kosovo has its own domestic political reasons and constraints. Spain, according to him, remains sensitive because of the Catalonia issue; Romania and Slovakia are cautious on issues related to national minorities; while Greece, although it has developed more constructive relations with Kosovo in recent years, still has not formally recognized its independence.

Gjanaj also underlined that the US would find it difficult to invest major diplomatic capital in persuading these four countries if, at the same time, Pristina and Belgrade do not send clear signals that they are ready to implement the commitments they have undertaken within the framework of the dialogue facilitated by the European Union and supported by Washington.

He recalled that for several years US administrations have repeatedly stressed that the Brussels Agreement and especially the Ohrid Agreement are not simply political declarations, but obligations that must be implemented by both sides. As long as their implementation remains blocked, he said, Washington will find it difficult to convince some allies that the region has stabilized enough for a new step such as Kosovo’s membership in NATO.

Gjanaj said the diplomatic strength of the United States is also linked to the credibility of the parties themselves. The more Kosovo and Serbia show readiness to respect their commitments and move toward normalization, the stronger Washington’s arguments will be in persuading hesitant countries.

According to him, the US remains Kosovo’s main strategic supporter, but for that very reason expects its leaders to demonstrate credibility by respecting the international commitments they themselves have accepted. He added that in American diplomacy, political support is usually accompanied by the expectation that partners will be predictable, reliable and respectful of the obligations they undertake.

Regarding the relationship between NATO and European integration, Gjanaj said Kosovo’s membership in the Alliance would also bring positive momentum to the process toward the EU, but this would not be automatic, as the two processes follow different logics.

He explained that the European Union evaluates not only the security dimension, but also the functioning of the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary, the fight against corruption, economic reforms and the functioning of democratic institutions. Moreover, Kosovo faces an additional obstacle, as five EU member states still do not recognize its independence.

According to Gjanaj, until this issue finds a gradual solution, membership will remain above all a political decision. He stressed that, like NATO, the European Union seeks to integrate states whose major geopolitical disputes have been sufficiently stabilized. In this sense, he emphasized that Kosovo is not at war, but its international status continues to be partially contested, while the normalization of relations with Serbia has still not reached a sustainable conclusion.

He warned that cause and effect should not be confused. According to him, it is not NATO membership that will start normalization; rather, it is credible progress in the normalization process that makes membership more likely.

Gjanaj said that the gradual implementation of the Brussels Agreement and the Ohrid Agreement, together with progress in the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade, would significantly strengthen Kosovo’s international position and make it easier for Western partners to make the political case in favor of its Euro-Atlantic integration.

Finally, he concluded that NATO membership would undoubtedly strengthen Kosovo’s European candidacy, but would not automatically open the doors of the European Union. According to him, progress in the dialogue with Serbia, the consolidation of Kosovo’s international recognition and the political will of member states will remain just as decisive as meeting the technical criteria. He stressed that both NATO and the EU do not integrate only states that meet technical standards, but above all states whose major geopolitical disputes are considered sufficiently stabilized so that they do not become internal problems for the organization itself. According to him, this remains the biggest challenge Kosovo must overcome on its path toward Euro-Atlantic integration.