Israel without a clear winner: Netanyahu’s bloc loses its majority

The first exit polls after polling stations closed in Israel do not show a clear winner in the elections, CNN reports.

Preliminary results indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has lost the majority it held in parliament. The opposition, led by former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is narrowly ahead, but there is still no clear formula for forming a government.

Voter turnout was the highest since 1999. According to projections by Israel’s Channel 12, Eisenkot’s bloc could secure 52 seats, while Netanyahu’s could win 50.

The Knesset has 120 members, and at least 61 seats are needed to govern with a majority.

The result is a major blow to Netanyahu: in the previous parliament, his bloc, together with its ultra-Orthodox allies and far-right parties, held 68 seats.

Eisenkot: Netanyahu’s government does not enjoy confidence

After the first exit polls were released, Eisenkot said they demonstrated “a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu” and his cabinet. “If the polls are confirmed, I will act immediately to implement the will of the people and replace Netanyahu’s government as soon as possible,” he declared.

Although Eisenkot’s bloc is ahead, building a post-election majority remains complicated. According to the projections, opposition parties would win around 70 seats in total, but CNN notes that they are deeply divided.

Israel’s opposition Zionist parties are projected to win around 52 seats, while Arab parties could reach a record 18 seats. Several leaders of parties in Eisenkot’s bloc have already rejected the idea of a government that would rely on Arab parties, making Netanyahu’s removal from power more difficult.

Arab parties heading toward their best result

One of the most notable developments on election night was the increase in support for Arab parties.

The three main polls project that the Joint List and Ra’am could win between 17 and 18 seats combined, which would be their best result to date. Their previous record was 15 seats, while Arab parties currently hold a total of 10 seats in the Knesset.

After the projections were released, supporters of the Joint List at the party headquarters in Nazareth began singing and dancing.

“It can be said with certainty: we sent the far-right fascist government to the dustbin of history,” the Joint List said in a statement.

The increase in turnout among Israel’s Palestinian citizens, who make up around 20 percent of the country’s population, is particularly significant.

In the 2022 elections, turnout among Arab voters was 53 percent. Initial estimates for the current elections indicate that it has exceeded 78 percent.

According to CNN, the increase is being interpreted as a protest vote against Netanyahu’s government and his far-right allies, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Possibility of a deadlock, minority government or unity coalition

Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot currently has a guaranteed path to 61 seats. For this reason, several scenarios remain possible: a political deadlock, a minority government, a national unity government or new elections.

High turnout makes the situation even more difficult for smaller parties, as they need to secure more votes to cross the 3.25 percent electoral threshold.

Exit polls are only projections, and the balance of power may change as counting continues.

Final results are expected within the next 48 hours, while coalition talks could continue for days or weeks.

Support for Netanyahu declines as Washington watches the result

CNN recalls that U.S. President Donald Trump recently expressed his support for Benjamin Netanyahu.

Referring to the projection that Netanyahu’s bloc could fall from 68 seats to approximately 50, CNN’s Kevin Liptak assesses that the result is unlikely to be welcomed at the White House.

The full composition of parliament will become clear only after all votes have been counted. Negotiations to form Israel’s new government will then begin./INA/