Iran Considers Striking U.S. Bases in Europe if Trump Expands Attacks

According to sources close to the Iranian regime, cited by the Financial Times, Tehran has examined the possibility of attacking U.S. military targets in Europe if President Donald Trump decides to escalate the war.

Two people close to the regime said that Iranian forces are assessing strikes on U.S. facilities in Southeastern Europe. Among the countries mentioned is Bulgaria, which last month authorized the use of Bezmer Air Base by U.S. tanker aircraft.

One of the sources said that Cyprus could also be included on the list of targets. In March, a drone struck a British air base on the island.

Tehran warns that the conflict could expand beyond the Middle East

The sources also indicated that Iran has considered attacking undersea fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if the confrontation escalates.

The Financial Times reports that a growing belief is taking hold in Tehran that the resumption of war is only a matter of time.

Meanwhile, talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have made no progress. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, recently appointed more hard-line figures to key security and military positions.

Trump said on Tuesday that, for the time being, there were “no talks or negotiations” planned with Tehran.

Commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have warned that, in the event of a new large-scale war, Iranian targets could extend beyond U.S. bases, energy facilities and infrastructure in the Middle East.

Last month, the Revolutionary Guard also issued a warning to Britain, saying that any base used for attacks against Iranian territory would be considered a “legitimate target.”

“Iran could also strike Europe”

Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, considers the threat posed by Iranian missiles to U.S. targets in Europe credible, though limited.

Tehran could use medium-range ballistic missiles, including those from the Shahab series, against targets in Southern and Southeastern Europe. According to the expert, however, their ability to cause significant effects would be substantially reduced over longer distances.

A source close to the Iranian regime said that Tehran is drawing up a plan to expand the war if Trump follows through on his previous threats to strike Iranian infrastructure.

“If the U.S. goes too far, Iran will defend itself at any cost, go beyond the region and strike Europe as well,” the source said.

Previous incidents show that Iran targets distant objectives

Tehran has previously shown that it can focus attacks on targets located far beyond its borders.

After the war was launched by the U.S. and Israel in February, Washington accused Iran of firing several missiles toward the joint U.S.-British base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, around 4,000 kilometers from Iran. None of the missiles hit the target.

In March, Turkey announced that NATO air defenses had intercepted several ballistic missiles launched by Iran. That same month, the British base at Akrotiri in Cyprus was attacked by a drone.

Western officials suspected at the time that the drone was Iranian, but assessed that it had been launched by groups allied with Tehran in the region rather than directly from Iran.

According to Financial Times sources, last month’s Iranian attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, in which three American service members were killed, was the most accurate long-range strike carried out by Iran. The incident, they said, demonstrated Tehran’s ability to hit targets at great distances.

Experts: Tehran could rely on allied groups

Experts warn that the direct use of missiles against European targets would pose significant risks for Iran.

Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said that the alleged attacks on Diego Garcia indicate that Iran possesses weapons with a range of more than 2,000 kilometers.

However, he emphasized that it is not known how many missiles of this type Tehran possesses or whether Iranian authorities would be willing to use them solely to send a political message.

Experts believe Iran may view activating allied groups in the region as more effective, including Shiite militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Within the Iranian regime, however, there are also fears that Tehran may have taken its confrontation with the U.S. beyond safe limits.

Iranian analysts have interpreted the appointment of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei to a senior security position as a sign that the harder-line faction is gaining strength. At the same time, the chances of a lasting agreement with Washington are dwindling.

“The message is: Don’t get angry, because I am angrier than you,” one of the sources cited by the Financial Times said.