Fetoshi: Threat to the Ibër River Part of Serbia’s Hybrid War Against Kosovo

Arben Fetoshi, director of the Institute for Hybrid War Studies “Octopus,” has responded to statements by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić about the Ibër River. According to him, the use of water as a means of pressure demonstrates that natural resources continue to be part of Serbia’s hybrid strategy against Kosovo.

“A statement with fascist elements that constitutes another direct threat to Kosovo. Vučić revealed the plan for the ‘protection of Serbs,’ using water as an instrument of pressure: We will change the course of the Ibër, and then let’s see what the Albanians will do” (RT Balkan, 09.08.2026). Fetoshi wrote on Facebook that linking this ‘plan’ to claims of the ‘mistreatment’ of Serbs should not be viewed merely as rhetoric aimed at a domestic audience. According to him, this represents an escalation of the hybrid strategy against Kosovo and indirectly confirms responsibility for the sabotage of the Ibër-Lepenc Canal in 2024.

Fetoshi assessed that, following the failure of the attack aimed at destabilizing the country because of its potential consequences for water supplies to the municipalities in the north, Mitrovica, Vushtrri, Pristina, Drenas, Fushë Kosovo and Obiliq, as well as for the energy supply of the power plants in Obiliq, Vučić is showing that Belgrade has not abandoned the use of natural resources against Kosovo.

He stressed that such an action is prohibited by international restrictions, including the 1992 UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. He also said the threat would have consequences for Serb citizens in the north, while the United States treats Lake Gazivode/Ujmani as a regional security issue, based on the assessment by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Water Resource Opportunities at Lake Gazivode/Ujmani, 14.04.2021. In this context, according to Fetoshi, the combination of the presidential threat with claims of ‘mistreatment’ indicates the advancement of the ‘victimization’ narrative in support of pressure for the ‘Serbian World.’

According to Fetoshi, Vučić’s change in position—from the statement ‘the idea exists, but I am against it’ (Danas, 01.12.2024) to the assertion ‘we are gathering engineers to see how we can do it’ (RT Balkan, 09.08.2026)—shows the transformation of Serbia’s strategic communication. He links this development to statements by Minister Paunović, the ‘heroization’ of war criminals and the arrest of a Serb suspected of providing information related to mass graves.

The idea of diverting the Ibër, which ‘would leave Lake Gazivode without water,’ had circulated in Serbia earlier. Expert Ljubiša Mijačić stated that ‘Serbia has the technical capability to divert it’ and that this constitutes a ‘real threat’ (Kosovo Online, 22.11.2025). By contrast, Spanish geography professor Miguel Borja Bernabe-Crespo denied the danger, referring to the obligations arising from the international regime governing transboundary waters (REL, 05.12.2024).

Nevertheless, Fetoshi believes that the calculated impact of the threat, under conditions of Kosovo’s ‘dependence’ on this system, explains the retaliatory wording directed at Albanians and the attempt to portray the conflict on ethnic grounds. In this case, the ‘protection of Serbs’ serves as a premise for legitimizing the threat.

According to him, the ‘victimization’ strategy aims to portray Kosovo as ‘repressive’ and present the West as ‘co-responsible,’ preparing the ground for the advanced stage of ‘Serbia’s right to respond.’

Fetoshi stated that the radicalization of chauvinist discourse following Minister Paunović’s positions, her support from Dačić, and the ‘heroization’ of war criminals and those arrested in connection with the Reçak Massacre make the threat against the Ibër an extension of Vučić’s message at the commemorative ceremony for Operation Storm. At that ceremony, Vučić declared that ‘Serbia is strong enough to protect the Serbs’ (Insajder, 04.08.2026).

He warned that the normalization of language involving violence, ethnic cleansing and the ‘punishment’ of Albanians is intended not only to calculate the further ‘tolerance’ of Serbia in its ‘two chairs’ position and Vučić’s domestic political gain, but also to legitimize the ‘Serbian World’ as a camouflage for Milošević’s project. ‘This is Serbia’s hybrid strategy in its advanced form. Military intervention is not necessary as long as subversive goals can be achieved through water, energy, sabotage, espionage and disinformation. From this perspective, the threat against the Ibër is the strategic lever, while Lake Gazivode/Ujmani is a threat to national security,’ Fetoshi said.