Eurozone exceeds growth forecasts despite energy shock and Middle East uncertainty

During the second quarter of 2026, the Eurozone economy expanded beyond expectations, even though the war in the Middle East caused a shock to the energy sector.

Preliminary data from Eurostat show that the Gross Domestic Product of the 21 countries using the common currency grew by 0.4% from April to June. This followed the lack of economic growth in the Eurozone during the first quarter.

The recorded figure was double the 0.2% forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

This performance was influenced by the positive results of the bloc’s main economies. Germany, France, and Italy each recorded an expansion of 0.2%, while Spain’s economy grew by 0.7%, also helped by strong tourism performance.

Ireland also had a significant weight in the Eurozone result. After a strong contraction in the first quarter, the Irish economy expanded by 3.9%.

These results show that the Eurozone has withstood the surge in energy prices and uncertainties created by the Middle East conflict better than anticipated.

After the failure of the ceasefire, the price of Brent crude has climbed back above $92 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has left its key interest rates unchanged at 2.25% and continues to analyze the effects of the war on inflation and economic growth.

The ECB forecasts that the Eurozone economy will expand by 0.8% in 2026, before the growth rate reaches 1.2% in 2027.

Despite this performance, the outlook remains unclear due to energy prices, inflation that remains above the 2% target, and future developments in the Middle East.