Elections that could shake up German politics, AfD leads decisively in Saxony-Anhalt

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to come first in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections, with the latest polls putting it at around 41% of the vote.

Such a result could significantly affect Germany’s political landscape and increase pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

In this eastern German state, around 1.7 million people are registered to vote. Voting began at 08:00 and ends at 18:00, while the first exit poll results after the polling stations close are expected to provide an initial indication of the outcome.

An absolute majority would open the way for the AfD to form a government at state level for the first time. This would be an unprecedented moment both for the party and for post-World War II German politics.

According to the latest poll by public broadcaster ZDF, the AfD had the support of 41% of respondents, while the CDU led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz stood at 23%.

Die Linke had 11.5%, the Social Democrats 8.5% and the Greens 6%. Meanwhile, two other political forces failed to clear the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament.

Support for the AfD has grown amid dissatisfaction over the state of the economy, immigration and the federal government’s policies. However, a major victory would not automatically guarantee the formation of a government, as Germany’s mainstream parties have categorically ruled out any cooperation with it.

The CDU and other traditional forces continue to uphold the so-called “Brandmauer”, or “firewall”, meaning the rejection of coalitions with the AfD.

The AfD’s branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as “right-wing extremist” by the German authority responsible for domestic intelligence.

The CDU, which currently governs the state, aims to form an alliance with several other parties to remain in power, even though polls show a considerable lead for the AfD.

Ulrich Siegmund, 35, is the AfD’s leading candidate. He has become one of the party’s best-known figures, partly thanks to his activity on social media, particularly TikTok.

Siegmund has said he will take charge of the state only if the party wins an absolute majority, while ruling out the possibility of a coalition with other political forces.

Before going in to vote, he expressed optimism about the result and said he hoped the AfD would achieve around 45% of the vote.

His platform calls for a tougher approach to immigration, including an offensive for “remigration” and deportations. He has also promised to ban rainbow flags in schools, curb the construction of new wind farms and make symbolic changes to the state’s identity.

The election race in Saxony-Anhalt is considered an important test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his cabinet.

Merz has been criticized for the performance of the German economy and for failing to significantly reduce support for the AfD.

A very strong result for the far right would further weaken the chancellor’s position, especially after the AfD overtook the CDU in some nationwide polls and is targeting a strong result in the 2029 federal elections.