Elections in two states shake official Berlin / DW analysis: AfD wins in Mecklenburg-Pomerania, but SPD has chance to form government; Merz remains chancellor

According to preliminary results, the AfD wins the elections in Mecklenburg-Pomerania, but the SPD has a chance to form the government. In Berlin, the Left candidate won. Merz will remain chancellor.

Elections in two German states, Mecklenburg-Pomerania and Berlin, have triggered strong reactions. CDU deputy leader Karin Prien spoke in favor of changes in government policy after the elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.

“We must essentially stay the course we have embarked on. However, it is clear that we have not listened enough to people. Empathy is lacking,” Prien said in an interview with German radio.

According to her, the overall direction of policy must be maintained, but the government must show more sensitivity to citizens’ concerns and needs.

SPD parliamentary group leader Matthias Miersch, after his party’s weak results in Berlin and its decline in Mecklenburg-Pomerania despite the chance to govern, signaled the need for a course correction in the federal government’s reform policies.

“At the moment, these reforms are identified above all with cuts,” Miersch said Monday on ARD’s “Morgenmagazin” program.

According to him, it has not yet been made clear to citizens “what positive changes” these reforms will bring. With this statement, Miersch suggested that the government must better communicate the benefits of the reforms and link them more clearly to concrete improvements for citizens, instead of them being perceived mainly as austerity measures.

Immediately after the elections in the two states, Chancellor Friedrich Merz appeared before the cameras; he admitted that the CDU result “was a catastrophe,” but stressed that the government in Berlin will continue the reform course.

“The answer must be to make our country ready and strong for the future.” He said, “I take on this responsibility because I want to move this country forward.”

It is unusual for a chancellor to speak directly on election night. Merz had called the CDU leadership to the party headquarters for the election evening.

After the CDU’s heavy fall in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier, criticism of Merz had grown increasingly strong even within his own party.

However, four days before the elections, eight powerful CDU state premiers had defended the chancellor with a joint statement, giving open support to his policies and leadership. Merz appeared resolute before the cameras.

“What must be done now requires courage, resilience and patience. I will show these qualities as CDU chairman and, above all, as federal chancellor of our country.”

AfD wins in Mecklenburg-Pomerania, SPD may govern

The AfD has won the state parliamentary elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but the second-placed SPD can continue to govern in this federal state, because no party will form a coalition with the AfD.

According to preliminary results, the AfD has won 38.2 percent of the vote. The party led by state premier candidate Leif-Erik Holm and lead candidate Enrico Schult has more than doubled its result from 2021, when it had won 16.7 percent of the vote.

The SPD of state premier Manuela Schwesig achieved a surprisingly strong result with 35.5 percent of the vote.

Although the party suffered losses compared with the 2021 elections, when it had won 39.6 percent, the relief within the SPD is great. In recent months, the party has managed to significantly narrow the considerable gap that polls gave the AfD, recovering a good part of its disadvantage.

CDU no longer in the Mecklenburg-Pomerania state parliament

The result for the CDU is dramatic: with only 4.9 percent of the vote, it fails to clear the five percent threshold and, for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, remains outside a state parliament. Lead candidate Daniel Peters recorded the weakest result for a Christian Democratic party in German state elections since 1949. During the election campaign, the CDU faced not only the negative trend at the federal level, but also suffered from the strong polarization of the race, which focused mainly on the duel between Premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD.

The Greens, led by lead candidate Claudia Müller, have again managed to enter the state parliament, winning 5.7 percent of the vote. During the election campaign, they also relied on tactical votes from the left-wing electorate and promoted the creation of a red-red-green state government (SPD, The Left and the Greens).

The Left cheers in Berlin

In Berlin, the Left party (Die Linke) celebrates victory: led by lead candidate Elif Eralp, it has more than doubled its result and, for the first time, emerges as the winner of the elections for the Berlin House of Representatives (Abgeordnetenhaus).

Candidate Elif Eralp won 25.7 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results. The 45-year-old of Turkish origin had focused her election campaign entirely on the issue of housing. Eralp often keeps her most important electoral issue close by even symbolically: around her neck she wears a gold pendant inscribed “Mietendeckel” (rent cap), which has become a symbol of her commitment to limiting rent increases.

The governing parties, the CDU and the SPD, have suffered significant losses. The current coalition between the CDU and the SPD in the Red City Hall (Rotes Rathaus) can no longer govern. The CDU, with its lead candidate Stefan Evers, suffered considerable losses. With only 18.8 percent of the vote, it ranked second, while in the 2023 elections it had reached 28.2 percent./DW