Bank of Albania warns: Global conflicts and oil fluctuations pose serious threat to economy

The Bank of Albania assesses that the financial position of households and businesses continues to be solid, yet uncertainties stemming from the international arena have deepened. Protracted wars, movements in energy markets, and dynamics in the real estate sector constitute the most significant sources of risk for the country.

In the analysis conducted for the first half of the year, reflected in the Financial Stability Report for the January-June 2026 period, the central monetary institution notes that the financial health of the private sector remains satisfactory. This is due to the fact that both income levels and debt burdens are kept within manageable parameters.

However, the document highlights that businesses are encountering difficulties in finding specialized labor, while the global geopolitical climate is generating more uncertainty. “The continuation of fighting in Ukraine and military tensions in the Middle East show tendencies to escalate further, negatively impacting quotas for crude oil, gas, and the supply chains that depend on them,” the Bank of Albania’s assessment states.

According to the Central Bank, threats coming from the “external environment” are labeled as “medium,” but their intensity has increased compared to a year ago. On the other hand, some positive indicators have helped mitigate these pressures, such as the economic expansion of our main trading partners and the maintenance of low short-term interest rates on global stock exchanges.

In the regular surveys the Bank of Albania conducts with the banking sector, the risk stemming from the international landscape is ranked as the main challenge for the Albanian economy. Immediately after it, banks list the performance in the real estate market as the second most worrying factor.