Arrests in Zubin Potok and the “October surprises”: Analysts call on Kosovo to be ready for Belgrade’s scenarios

The arrest of nine Serbs in Zubin Potok, suspected of war crimes, has triggered strong political reactions in Belgrade.

Millosh Vučević, leader of the SNS, accused Pristina of implementing a policy of terror and intimidation against Serbs in northern Kosovo, directly linking the action to Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

Belgrade’s reaction comes at a time when Kosovo-Serbia relations continue to be marked by tensions and political clashes.

The latest confrontation has raised questions as to whether the arrests are also being used to strengthen Serbia’s narrative about developments in northern Kosovo.

Experts assess that the harsh statements by Serbian officials should also be viewed in relation to Serbia’s domestic political situation and the approaching elections.

“Serbia is in the middle of an election campaign, while Vučić’s government is facing serious domestic pressure. Every incident in Kosovo is a good opportunity for the regime.”

Professor and political analyst Florian Bieber considers the reaction of the Serbian authorities following the arrest of nine people in Zubin Potok to be expected.

In a statement to Bota sot, Bieber said Belgrade’s position was part of a repeated pattern of reaction, but that the election campaign and domestic political pressure gave the situation particular significance.

According to him, Serbia is in an electoral period, while the government of President Aleksandar Vučić is facing considerable pressure at home. Under these circumstances, nationalist rhetoric may be used to divert attention from domestic problems.

“This is hardly surprising. First, this is the usual reaction of the Serbian authorities,” Bieber said.

He stressed that developments should be analyzed in the context of the election campaign in Serbia.

“Moreover, Serbia is in the middle of an election campaign and Vučić’s government is facing serious domestic pressure,” he said.

Bieber assesses that domestic circumstances may lead the Serbian authorities to use nationalist messages to influence public opinion.

“Therefore, it is no surprise if it seeks to divert attention and amplify nationalist messages,” the analyst said.

According to him, any new incident in Kosovo could be turned into a political tool for the authorities in Belgrade.

“Given these circumstances, every incident in Kosovo is therefore a good opportunity for the regime,” Florian Bieber concluded in his statement to Bota sot.

“Twenty-three human remains are not propaganda; they require answers. Open the archives, identify the victims and bring the missing back to their families.”

Günther Fehlinger-Jahn, chairman of the Austrian Committee for NATO Enlargement, says that the arrests in Zubin Potok, the discovery of human remains and Belgrade’s reactions should be examined within a broader framework.

According to him, this framework includes both the crimes and people who went missing during the Kosovo war, as well as Serbia’s political crisis.

Fehlinger-Jahn assesses that the approach of the early parliamentary elections on October 25 makes the political context of Serbia’s reactions to Kosovo even more important.

He called on Kosovo to be politically and institutionally prepared for unexpected developments during the final weeks of the election campaign.

The expert clarified that he was not claiming to have evidence of an operation planned by Belgrade, but stressed that any escalation should also be analyzed through the lens of Serbia’s domestic political situation.

“The arrests in Zubin Potok, the discovery of human remains and the aggressive reaction from Belgrade must be understood in the context of two unresolved realities: the crimes and people missing from the 1998–99 Kosovo war, and Serbia’s political crisis on the eve of the parliamentary elections on October 25, 2026,” Fehlinger-Jahn said.

He recalled that Aleksandar Vučić resigned from the office of president on September 27 and intends to return to government as prime minister.

Fehlinger-Jahn said that Vučić had dominated Serbian politics as president or prime minister for approximately twelve years.

Meanwhile, Serbia is heading toward early parliamentary elections after nearly two years of student-led protests.

“This electoral context is of extremely great importance,” he said.

According to Fehlinger-Jahn, Kosovo should take measures regarding what is referred to in political discourse as the “October surprises.” The term refers to dramatic developments occurring shortly before elections that could suddenly change the political agenda.

“I believe Kosovo should prepare politically and institutionally for the ‘October surprises.’ This is an established political term for dramatic developments shortly before elections that suddenly change the political agenda,” he said.

However, he repeated that he had not presented evidence of any specific operation that Belgrade had already planned.

“I am not claiming to possess evidence of a specific operation already planned by Belgrade. I am warning that any sudden escalation related to Kosovo during the final weeks before October 25 should also be examined in the context of Serbia’s domestic election campaign,” Fehlinger-Jahn stressed.

He underlined that Kosovo has consistently been one of the most emotional issues in Serbian nationalist politics.

Fehlinger-Jahn also referred to statements by Millosh Vučević following the arrest of nine people in Zubin Potok.

“When SNS leader Millosh Vučević reacts to the arrests in Zubin Potok by speaking of ‘terror,’ ‘ethnic cleansing,’ ‘open persecution’ and fabricated war-crimes accusations, this rhetoric does not occur in a political vacuum. It is being used during an extremely tense election campaign in Serbia,” he said.

According to him, the facts must not be lost beneath the weight of nationalist statements.

“Do not allow the nationalist rhetoric of the election campaign to bury the facts,” Fehlinger-Jahn said.

Speaking about Operation “File 23,” he recalled that on September 27, the Kosovo Police and the Special Prosecution announced the arrest of nine people suspected of war crimes against the civilian population.

Fehlinger-Jahn stressed that an arrest does not mean a conviction and that responsibility must be established through investigations and evidence.

“An arrest is not a conviction, but Serbia cannot declare an investigation into war crimes illegal simply because the suspects are Serbs,” he said.

He also paid particular attention to the human remains found in the municipality of Zubin Potok, which, according to Kosovo authorities, are suspected to belong to at least 23 people who went missing during the war.

“Twenty-three groups of human remains are not propaganda. They require answers,” Fehlinger-Jahn stressed.

He called on Serbia to cooperate fully in clarifying the fate of all those who continue to be listed as missing from the Kosovo war.

“Serbia must finally cooperate fully to establish the fate of every person still listed as missing from the Kosovo war,” he said.

The expert also called for every grave to be found, every body to be identified and the military, police and security archives related to these cases to be opened.

“Every grave must be found. Every body must be identified. Every relevant Serbian military, police and security archive must be opened. Every transfer of bodies must be reconstructed. Every family must be informed of what happened to their loved ones,” Fehlinger-Jahn said.

He also proposed the establishment of a Kosovo-Serbia Commission for Historical Truth, which would operate under strong international supervision and with the participation of the United States, the European Union and international forensic institutions.

“The commission must have one mission: to establish the complete factual record,” he said.

Under his proposal, the commission should have access to archives and analyze military documents, Interior Ministry materials, intelligence and security service records, wartime orders, the deployment of units, forensic evidence, the locations of graves and the command structures that operated during 1998 and 1999.

“We need to know: Who disappeared? Who was killed? Where were they killed? Where were they initially buried? Who ordered the relocation of the bodies? Who transported them? Who organized the secret burials? Who knew about them? Which institutions subsequently concealed the information? And where are the missing people today?” Fehlinger-Jahn asked.

He assessed that every victim, every grave, every disappearance and every link in the chain of responsibility must be recorded and documented.

Referring to the judgments of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, Fehlinger-Jahn said that the concealment of the bodies of Kosovo Albanians in Serbia had been established through international judicial findings.

“We already know from international judicial findings that the concealment of the bodies of Kosovo Albanians inside Serbia was real and organized,” he said.

According to him, the bodies of Kosovo Albanians killed by Serbian forces were transported from Kosovo and secretly buried in Serbian territory.

Among other cases, he mentioned Batajnica, Petrovo Selo and the area near Lake Perućac.

“The bodies were taken from Kosovo and hidden in Serbian territory, including at facilities belonging to Serbia’s Interior Ministry. This cannot be forgotten. It cannot be relativized. And it cannot remain an unfinished issue for another generation,” Fehlinger-Jahn concluded.