Are the Taliban Capable of Bringing Stability to Afghanistan?

Five years under Taliban rule have transformed Afghanistan, but not in the way many citizens had expected. Restrictions on human rights, falling wages and worsening living conditions are among the main consequences of this period.

After decades of war, the Taliban have established relative calm. Roadside bombings, clashes between warring factions and security concerns have declined significantly, but the country continues to face a severe economic crisis.

A widespread humanitarian emergency has left millions of people dependent on aid. At the same time, the Taliban’s human rights record, particularly the systematic exclusion of women and girls from public life, has pushed Afghanistan into almost complete international isolation.

How do the Taliban control and censor the lives of Afghans?

Hope has not disappeared entirely for many Afghans, but it has faded considerably.

A taxi driver in Kabul told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that although he has worked in the profession for 20 years, over the past five years he has faced problems he had never encountered before. He spoke about the financial hardships he has experienced under Taliban rule.

The man, who is in his 40s and stood beside a taxi almost as old as he is, said his only wish is to earn a halal living and put food on the table.

The Taliban returned to power in August 2021, as international forces were withdrawing. They took control of an economy with deep structural weaknesses that was extremely dependent on foreign funding.

International aid subsequently came to an almost complete halt. Taliban policies, particularly the near-total exclusion of women from public life, caused the flow of funds to dry up.

Declining incomes and shrinking opportunities for economic activity are affecting different segments of Afghan society, from owners of large businesses and retailers to transport workers and day laborers.

In a report published in April 2025, the World Bank assessed that poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition remain urgent problems in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. High unemployment and restrictions on women continue to make it difficult to earn a living.

According to the same report, only 3 percent of girls are enrolled in secondary education, leaving an entire generation of young women facing the prospect of poverty and dependence.

Michael Semple, a professor at Queen’s University Belfast, described the Taliban’s approach as using medieval concepts of governance to administer a state that must address the complex challenges of the 21st century.

According to analysts, the decline in the number of explosions and the relative improvement in security have not been accompanied by sufficient steps to address the main challenge: establishing economic stability and good governance that would improve living standards.

Democratic institutions and consultative bodies have been completely dismantled by the Taliban. Decision-making has been concentrated in the hands of their leader, Mullah Hebatullah, who rarely appears in public.

Mullah Hebatullah has issued a series of decrees, many of them affecting women and girls, but has not presented a comprehensive strategy or roadmap for ensuring good governance and economic development.

The main center of decision-making is no longer Kabul, but has largely shifted to the remote southern province of Kandahar. It was there that the Taliban movement emerged in the mid-1990s.

The Taliban are predominantly Pashtun and have their main base particularly in southern and southeastern Afghanistan. At every level of government, they have entrusted power to the movement’s leaders, commanders and senior members.

Mushtaq Rahim, an Afghan analyst based in Washington, described the lack of a governance model as the Taliban’s biggest problem. Before August 2021, he had taken part in various government and nongovernmental projects on good governance in Kabul.

Speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Rahim said Afghanistan is being governed solely according to traditional principles that do not conform to international standards. According to him, the Taliban are maintaining this system because they lack the capacity and skills to govern differently, while rejecting outside support.

Governance problems, compounded by growing economic insecurity, have fueled fears that Afghanistan could once again become a hotbed of instability.

Sami Yousafzai, an Afghan analyst living in London, believes that over the past five years the Taliban have become disconnected from ordinary citizens, who now feel like strangers in their own country.

Yousafzai told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the Taliban’s entirely rural background leads them to place greater importance on loyalty to the group than on national unity.

Semple also believes the population feels alienated. According to him, the Taliban are blocking every initiative to begin a political process that could create the conditions for a more inclusive system.

He warned that at least three groups have recently announced the start of armed resistance against the Taliban in Badakhshan. The resource-rich province is located in northeastern Afghanistan and borders Tajikistan, Pakistan and China.

According to Semple, armed resistance is expanding, while waves of crime are also being reported in many provinces. He also said the Taliban are carrying out extrajudicial executions and enforced disappearances.

In his assessment, the main factor enabling the continuation of Taliban rule is the absence of effective resistance capable of mobilizing the population on the ground.

Alongside their domestic problems, the Taliban are also seeking to establish a foothold on the international stage. Analysts believe this effort is linked, at least in part, to the goal of securing foreign aid and investment, as well as stabilizing the economy.

In 2020, when international troops were still deployed in Afghanistan and the government was supported by foreign funding, the country’s Gross Domestic Product was around 20 billion dollars.

World Bank data show that in 2021 this figure fell to just over 14 billion dollars. The economy has since recorded a slight recovery, supported in part by money sent home by Afghans living abroad, but living standards for ordinary citizens continue to decline.

Russia remains the only country to have officially recognized the Taliban government. Meanwhile, the authorities in Afghanistan have succeeded in strengthening contacts with China, India, the United Arab Emirates and several Central Asian countries.

Another sign of efforts to engage more closely with the international community was a Taliban delegation’s trip to Brussels in June. Unprecedented technical talks, closed to the public, were held there with the European Commission and representatives of 15 EU member states.

The discussions covered migration, the deportation of rejected Afghan asylum seekers and cooperation on consular matters.

The European Policy Centre described the controversial visit as a process of “gradual normalization.” The Taliban, for their part, called it a “historic” moment for building trust and expanding their diplomatic presence.

However, aid was not on the agenda, and no European Union country appears ready to officially recognize the Taliban’s de facto authority.

Analysts expect the Taliban, in their effort to retain power, to continue obstructing any political process that could lead toward a more inclusive system.

Semple assessed that the Taliban emirate could certainly collapse, but expressed doubt that the force capable of overthrowing it has yet emerged on the ground.