Analysts urge Rama to be cautious about Kosovo: Political change in Serbia does not guarantee a change in Belgrade’s position

The Student List’s victory in Serbia’s latest elections has not raised expectations that Belgrade will recognize Kosovo. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama expressed that view, while analysts Zejnullah Jakupi and Ali Hertica urged him to be careful when speaking about Serbia and Kosovo’s interests.

At the Euronews Enlargement Summit in Brussels, Rama said the Student List remains opposed to recognizing Kosovo’s independence. In his view, that position shows that Belgrade’s policy toward Kosovo is unlikely to change, regardless of the election result.

The prime minister also spoke about Serbia’s European path. He said the country must demonstrate its commitment to the principles and policies of the European Union if it wants to join. In particular, Rama criticized Belgrade’s failure to align with EU sanctions against Russia, stressing that a stated willingness is not enough without fulfilling its obligations. He said the region needs Serbia as part of the EU, but that Serbia must earn its place by meeting non-negotiable conditions.

Relations with Kosovo remain among the main obstacles to Serbia’s European integration. Brussels has repeatedly called for the normalization of relations between Pristina and Belgrade. Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and applied for EU membership in December 2022. Meanwhile, the Student List, like most Serbian political forces, considers Kosovo an inalienable part of the Republic of Serbia and opposes its recognition.

Commenting on Rama’s statements to “Bota sot,” political analyst Zejnullah Jakupi said they should be viewed in the broader political and regional context. In his view, the student movement’s success shows that a large part of Serbian society wants a change of government, a fight against corruption and more democratic institutions. Nevertheless, a change in leadership does not automatically bring a change in state policy toward Kosovo. Jakupi described this part of Rama’s assessment as realistic, but said his position also contains aspects that deserve criticism.

Jakupi distinguished between a democratic victory over an entrenched political system and a change in Serbian attitudes toward Kosovo. He said the victorious movement’s statements and program do not yet provide grounds for optimism: its representatives continue to call Kosovo part of Serbia and do not accept its independence. For that reason, he said Kosovo should not expect an improvement in relations with Pristina simply because the names of those running institutions in Belgrade change. What matters, Jakupi said, is Serbia’s concrete actions.

The analyst also expressed reservations about Rama’s view that Serbia should not leave the European path. He said a democratic, stable and EU-oriented Serbia benefits the entire region, and that no one should want its isolation or destabilization. But, in his view, support for Belgrade’s European prospects cannot become tolerance of its policies toward Kosovo.

Jakupi called for Serbia to be held accountable for its relations with Russia, its failure to implement agreements with Kosovo and the obstacles it places in the way of Kosovo’s statehood and international integration. Serbia’s strategic importance to the Balkans, he said, should not push these issues into the background. He called it particularly troubling that Belgrade seeks to retain Moscow’s support on the Kosovo issue while refusing to align with EU foreign and security policy, including sanctions against Russia.

In Jakupi’s view, EU membership should result from respecting the bloc’s values, standards and obligations, not be a reward for Serbia’s geopolitical weight. He added that building a democratic Serbia cannot rest on denying Kosovo’s rights or reviving old nationalist ambitions. For that reason, Jakupi urged Brussels to be more consistent and not compromise its standards for temporary political interests because of Belgrade’s geographic position or strategic importance.

Among the conditions he considers decisive are genuine normalization of relations with Kosovo and the full, unconditional implementation of the 2023 Brussels and Ohrid agreements. Jakupi also called on Serbia to stop obstructing Kosovo in international organizations, in line with its commitment under the 2023 agreement, and to respect Kosovo’s sovereignty.

Another issue, Jakupi said, is accountability for the attack in Banjska on September 24, 2023. He called for investigations and criminal accountability for those involved, including anyone who may bear organizational or political responsibility, on the basis of evidence and legal procedures. Jakupi said Belgrade must stop interfering in Kosovo, respect its institutions and cease funding parallel structures outside the constitutional order.

He also cited the alignment of Serbian foreign policy with the EU’s as a condition. Serbia, Jakupi said, must show that its strategic orientation is toward Europe rather than pursue a dual policy between Brussels and Moscow. He also listed judicial reform, free elections, the fight against corruption, media freedom, institutional independence, democracy and the rule of law as standards that every country seeking to join the European Union must meet.

Jakupi stressed that Kosovo, too, must fulfill its obligations, including those concerning the Association of Serb-majority municipalities, in accordance with the agreements and the country’s Constitution. However, he said, those obligations cannot be used to allow Serbia to evade its own responsibilities.

On Rama’s role, Jakupi said criticism of the Albanian prime minister is legitimate and necessary. In his view, Rama should be more careful when speaking about Serbia, especially when Kosovo’s interests are at stake. He said Albania must remain an unwavering supporter of Kosovo internationally. Good relations with Serbia matter, Jakupi said, but they should not create the impression that Pristina’s interests come second. Albania’s role, he argued, is not to act as an intermediary easing Belgrade’s European path, but to be Kosovo’s partner and a supporter of justice, peace and regional stability.

Jakupi also commented on the continuity of political power in Albania. He said that before speaking about developments in Serbia, Rama should reflect on his own political responsibility. Whether Rama should resign, he said, is for Albanian citizens to decide through elections and democratic mechanisms, but no prime minister should regard power as permanent. Jakupi called for an Albanian policy that is clearer, more dignified and more resolute in defending national interests, without creating the impression that Belgrade receives more understanding than Pristina.

Concluding his assessment, Jakupi said developments in Serbia send a message to countries across the region: younger generations want political change, accountability and more democratic institutions, and will not indefinitely accept the same structures and ways of governing. He noted that Serbian students won the elections chiefly on an anti-corruption platform and a call for institutional change, not on a new position toward Kosovo. For Serbia, he said, a change of government must be accompanied by a change in political thinking, respect for Kosovo and fulfillment of international obligations. The EU, he added, must not apply double standards: Serbia must show through actions, not just statements, that it deserves membership.

Political affairs analyst Ali Hertica also spoke to “Bota sot” about Rama’s position following the Student List’s victory and Aleksandar Vuçiq’s defeat. Rama had said the election result did not signal a change in Serbia’s approach to Kosovo, an issue he has described as the one closest to his heart. Hertica agreed that change on the Serbian political scene does not necessarily mean a change in policy toward Kosovo, since Student List representatives have so far given no clear indication of a different approach.

According to Hertica, the movement has not put forward a new position on recognizing Kosovo or on relations between the two countries. He said that during the campaign, its candidates called for a review of all agreements reached in the dialogue, for the question of Kosovo’s status to be returned to the United Nations, and for decisions to be made only after consulting Kosovo Serbs.

Hertica also commented on Rama’s view that Serbia should not abandon the European project. He called Serbia an important part of the Western Balkans and said its departure from that project would have consequences for the region, particularly Kosovo. Nevertheless, he said, that importance does not justify tolerating policies that obstruct normalization with Kosovo. Belgrade must fulfill its obligations before joining the EU, he stressed.

The two areas in which Hertica called for change are Serbia’s relations with Kosovo and the alignment of its foreign policy with that of the European Union, especially regarding Russia. In his view, Belgrade has shown hesitation both on normalization and on sanctions and other foreign-policy issues. For that reason, Hertica said the EU must demand concrete results rather than settle for Serbia’s statements.

He also called for a more determined European approach toward Kosovo. Hertica expressed concern that Kosovo’s EU membership application has made no progress for years and that the European Commission is still not considering it. With political will, he said, a creative solution could be found that would allow Kosovo at least to begin the membership process, even though not all member states recognize it.

In closing, Hertica stressed that Serbia’s European prospects must be tied to its obligations toward Kosovo. In his view, the European Union must demand full implementation of the agreements and respect for Kosovo’s status as a state.