Analysis / “The government put its head on the line!” – Lutfi Dervishi: Police can disperse protesters, but they cannot extinguish the discontent that brought…

By Lutfi Dervishi

From flamingos to stones

After 135 days of peaceful protest, today was the first day of the student protest, and it began with violence!

The students did not turn out like the “Flamingo” protesters. Today, they face a more expensive Tirana and the question of whether it is worth staying in the country. This makes their protest less predictable.

For 135 days, the daily protest operated under an unwritten agreement: do whatever you like, but no violence.

The government gambled on time: the protest would run out of steam, and numbers would fall. It partly succeeded. The crowds in the square dwindled, but falling numbers do not mean discontent has faded. Today, it seemed that some protesters had lost faith in peaceful action.

The square where the students are protesting is the same as it was eight years ago, but there are no longer memes and eight demands!

Back then, after several weeks of protests, the government announced the Pact for the University, whereas today the demands are political. As a result, there is far less room for a solution or compromise.

One element that deserves particular attention today is the police intervention. Rather than calming the situation, today’s intervention appears to have escalated it. Eggs and stones brought tear gas, tear gas brought more stones, and the confrontation took on a momentum that could become increasingly difficult to control.

France’s experience offers a picture worth “looking at.” Even at protests where property damage has been much greater, French police use crowd-management tactics, depending on the circumstances, aimed at avoiding immediate confrontation and distinguishing peaceful protesters from violent individuals. Of course, French police interventions have also frequently been criticized for the disproportionate use of force. But the principle remains: the response to violence must be necessary, proportionate and focused on those committing it, not on the entire crowd.

A police intervention is measured not only by the ability to empty a square, but also by the ability to avoid turning an incident into a larger confrontation. A square can be cleared in a few minutes, but the anger caused by a misguided intervention can last for days…

If today’s violence remains an isolated episode, the government can deal with it without much difficulty. But if the violence recurs, the police intervention is perceived as disproportionate, and students from other universities, lecturers and parents join the protest, the situation could take a different course.

The protest could grow and trigger a spiral of violence that gets out of control, even if no one intended or planned it.

The government has just demonstrated that it has 85 votes in parliament, but parliamentary votes and social legitimacy are not the same thing. Viewing the protest solely through the lens of stones and broken windows would be an incomplete reading of the situation.

Police can disperse protesters from the square with water cannons, but they cannot extinguish the discontent that brought them out to protest.

If the protest continues and the violence recurs, we could move from a public-order crisis to a political crisis.