Analysis: Five ways Putin could use United Russia’s victory in the Duma elections

United Russia, the ruling party, once again secured a broad majority in the Russian Duma, in elections held within a tightly controlled political system. In this process, most candidates opposing Russia’s war against Ukraine were not allowed to participate.

For President Vladimir Putin, this result can serve as a basis to reinforce the Kremlin’s narrative on the war, political order, and the internal state of the country.

1. Political legitimization of the continuation of the war

Even after more than 25 years at the top of Russian power, sometimes as president and sometimes as prime minister, Putin continues to have strong control over the country. But the conflict in Ukraine has dragged on beyond the expectations of many Russian citizens and its impact is becoming more visible in domestic life.

This year, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory have increased. Moscow has been hit several times and civilian casualties in Russia have risen, although their number remains much lower compared to Ukraine.

Strikes on refineries have caused difficulties in fuel supply, while Russian companies have faced consequences after Ukrainian attacks on the supply network.

Putin has interpreted the elections as evidence of public support for his political course. In this context, the Kremlin may claim that the majority of Russians are in favor of continuing the war until the objectives declared by Moscow are met.

2. The rise of a ‘new elite’

The Russian president has said that those who have participated in the war in Ukraine should be included in the country’s new ‘elite.’ He has also promised them opportunities to build careers in politics and public life.

Approximately 200 veterans entered the race for a seat in the Duma. If they have succeeded, the Kremlin can present this as proof that the state rewards those who have served in the war.

The inclusion of veterans in political positions could give Moscow the opportunity to shape new public figures and at the same time motivate more people to join the military.

3. Using the elections in the clash with Ukraine

Putin has questioned whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the legitimacy to continue in office, as his five-year term ended in May 2024.

Ukraine has not held elections during the war. After the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, the country imposed martial law, which does not allow presidential elections to be held during this period. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian constitution stipulates that the president remains in office until the newly elected president takes office.

The Kremlin can use the Russian electoral process in the political confrontation with Ukraine, arguing that Russia held elections on schedule, even though it is at war.

4. Presenting a false normalcy

Moscow also aims to create the impression among Russian citizens that ordinary life can continue, despite the war and its consequences.

This message has become harder to convey due to Ukrainian drone attacks, which have penetrated deeper and deeper into Russian territory. However, holding elections in a state with a vast territory and 11 time zones can enable Putin to project an image of continuity and normalcy.

5. New recruitment and expansion of censorship

Putin has dismissed as ‘nonsense’ Western media reports that after the elections Russia could launch a new mobilization to increase the number of troops on the Ukrainian front. According to him, these reports are intended to create panic in Russian society.

However, Russian and international observers have expressed concern that the election result could be used to justify new mobilization measures. This concern is linked to Russia’s heavy losses in the war and Moscow’s aim to expand its territorial control in Ukraine.

After the electoral process ends, the authorities may tighten control and censorship even further, as they will no longer have the same interest in maintaining a calm situation before the vote.

Among the proposals considered earlier were possible plans by mobile operators to impose additional fees on users who consume more than 15 gigabytes of data per month from foreign sources. Such a policy would particularly affect people who use VPNs to access websites and applications blocked in Russia.

To date, Moscow has given no public signal that this plan will be reinstated immediately.