According to a UN report, global warming is expected to exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold next year, the limit set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.

The report says that exceeding this threshold is now widely considered inevitable. However, it stresses that it is still possible to limit the duration and extent of this exceedance, bringing global temperatures back below 1.5°C at a later stage.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), even the most optimistic scenario projects that global temperatures will reach a peak of around 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels before beginning to decline. Most other scenarios project an even greater increase.

The report recommends an approach described as “overshoot, peak and decline,” which aims to limit as much as possible both the rise in temperatures and the length of time they remain above 1.5°C.

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