A new global climate forecast is raising serious concerns among scientists. The El Niño phenomenon, combined with continued warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, could push the global average temperature to unprecedented levels in 2027.

According to an analysis by climatologist Zick Hausfather published in The Washington Post, there is about a 95 percent chance that 2027 will break the record for the warmest year ever recorded.

According to projections, the global average temperature could reach around 1.76 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Hausfather has described El Niño as a kind of climate “time machine,” as its impact could bring temperatures that, in a scenario without the phenomenon, would not be expected until many years later.

At the heart of this development is the Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, vast amounts of heat accumulated in the ocean shift eastward, affecting the atmosphere and distributing heat across different parts of the globe.

Water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have reached exceptionally high levels, heightening concerns about the phenomenon’s impact on the global climate.

Experts warn that other factors could also intensify the warming. A reduction in atmospheric aerosols, which have until now reflected some solar radiation and had a cooling effect, could contribute to rising temperatures.

However, El Niño’s impact is expected to be largely temporary. Forecasts suggest that 2028 could be cooler.

But this does not alter the long-term trend: continued greenhouse gas emissions are permanently increasing the amount of heat in the climate system.

A warmer atmosphere can also hold more water vapor. According to the physical principle known as the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, the air’s capacity to hold water vapor increases by around 7 percent for every 1 degree Celsius of warming, increasing the potential for extreme rainfall.

Europe Faces Extreme Temperatures

Meanwhile, Europe is experiencing a series of heat waves that are putting the continent’s infrastructure, healthcare systems and economies to the test.

In the United Kingdom, temperatures have exceeded 38 degrees Celsius, while France has recorded similar temperatures, including around 38 degrees Celsius in Paris.

The high temperatures have increased pressure on hospitals and public services, while measures have been introduced in some areas to cope with the heat and drought.

In France, extreme temperatures have also affected agriculture. Some winegrowers have been forced to bring forward the harvest to protect their produce from heat-related damage.

The economic cost of successive heat waves, droughts and wildfires is growing steadily. Beyond temperature records, scientists warn that the most significant impacts of climate change will be felt in public health, food security, water supplies and the economy.

If the forecasts prove accurate, 2027 could provide further evidence of the speed at which Earth’s climate is changing.

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Sipas një analize të klimatologut Zick Hausfather, të publikuar në Washington Post, ekziston një mundësi prej rreth 95 për qind që 2027-a të thyejë rekordin për vitin më të ngrohtë të regjistruar ndonjëherë.

Sipas projeksioneve, temperatura mesatare globale mund të arrijë rreth 1.76 gradë Celsius mbi nivelin paraindustrial.

Hausfather e ka përshkruar El Niñon si një lloj “makine kohe” klimatike, pasi ndikimi i tij mund të sjellë temperatura që, në një skenar pa këtë fenomen, do të priteshin vetëm shumë vite më vonë.

Në qendër të këtij zhvillimi është Oqeani Paqësor. Gjatë El Niños, sasi të mëdha të nxehtësisë së akumuluar në oqean zhvendosen drejt lindjes, duke ndikuar në atmosferë dhe duke shpërndarë nxehtësinë në pjesë të ndryshme të globit.

Temperaturat e ujërave në Paqësorin ekuatorial kanë arritur nivele jashtëzakonisht të larta, duke shtuar shqetësimet për ndikimin e fenomenit në klimën globale.

Ekspertët paralajmërojnë se edhe faktorë të tjerë mund ta përforcojnë ngrohjen. Zvogëlimi i aerosoleve atmosferike, të cilat deri më tani kanë reflektuar një pjesë të rrezatimit diellor dhe kanë pasur efekt ftohës, mund të kontribuojë në rritjen e temperaturave.

Megjithatë, ndikimi i El Niños pritet të jetë kryesisht i përkohshëm. Parashikimet sugjerojnë se 2028-a mund të jetë më e freskët.

Por kjo nuk ndryshon tendencën afatgjatë: emetimet e vazhdueshme të gazrave serrë po e shtojnë në mënyrë të përhershme sasinë e nxehtësisë në sistemin klimatik.

Një atmosferë më e ngrohtë gjithashtu, mund të mbajë më shumë avuj uji. Sipas parimit fizik të njohur si relacioni Clausius-Clapeyron, kapaciteti i ajrit për të mbajtur avuj uji rritet me rreth 7 për qind për çdo 1 gradë Celsius ngrohje, duke rritur potencialin për reshje ekstreme.

Evropa përballet me temperatura ekstreme

Ndërkohë, Evropa po përjeton një seri valësh të nxehti që po vënë në provë infrastrukturën, sistemet shëndetësore dhe ekonomitë e vendeve të kontinentit.

Në Mbretërinë e Bashkuar, temperaturat kanë kaluar 38 gradë Celsius, ndërsa Franca ka regjistruar temperatura të ngjashme, përfshirë rreth 38 gradë Celsius në Paris.

Temperaturat e larta kanë shtuar presionin mbi spitalet dhe shërbimet publike, ndërsa në disa zona janë vendosur masa për përballimin e vapës dhe thatësirës.

Në Francë, temperaturat ekstreme kanë prekur edhe bujqësinë. Disa vreshtarë janë detyruar të përshpejtojnë korrjen për të mbrojtur prodhimin nga dëmtimi i shkaktuar nga nxehtësia.

Kostoja ekonomike e valëve të njëpasnjëshme të të nxehtit, thatësirës dhe zjarreve po bëhet gjithnjë e më e madhe. Përtej rekordeve të temperaturave, shkencëtarët paralajmërojnë se ndikimet më të rëndësishme të ndryshimeve klimatike do të shfaqen në shëndetin publik, sigurinë ushqimore, furnizimin me ujë dhe ekonominë.

Nëse parashikimet realizohen, 2027-a mund të jetë një tjetër dëshmi e shpejtësisë me të cilën po ndryshon klima e Tokës.

The post Evropa përballet me temperatura ekstreme/ “El Niño” ndez alarmin, 2027 mund të jetë viti më i nxehtë në historinë e Tokës appeared first on Albeu.com.

A powerful “El Niño” could hit the planet by the end of the year, bringing global economic shocks, extreme weather and rising food prices.

A “super” El Niño could increase the cost of living worldwide. Experts warn that one of the strongest El Niño events recorded in the past 140 years could emerge by the end of the year.

This natural phenomenon not only affects weather conditions but could also have major consequences for the global economy and the cost of living.

Trillions of Dollars in Economic Damage

According to climate expert Christopher Callahan, previous El Niño events have caused extraordinary economic losses. “The 1982-1983 El Niño caused more than $4 trillion in global economic losses, which were felt for up to five years after the event. Meanwhile, the 1997-1998 event resulted in around $5.7 trillion in economic losses,” he told DW.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon that usually occurs every 2 to 4 years. It is associated with higher water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and causes severe droughts, intense rainfall, flooding and extreme heat waves.

Its effects are felt in many regions around the world, damaging infrastructure, agricultural production and supply chains.

Risks to Food and Agriculture

Climate changes linked to El Niño could directly affect food production. India is facing extreme temperatures and is at risk of drought due to changes in wind cycles. Meanwhile, Vietnam has warned of severe heat waves, an increase in rainfall of up to 50% and massive flooding. These developments could reduce agricultural production and lead to higher food prices on international markets.

Problems for Waterways and Global Trade

El Niño could also affect strategic waterways. In Panama, low water levels limited the number of ships that could pass through the Panama Canal. As a result, global trade slowed and millions of dollars in losses were incurred.

This shows that the phenomenon’s impact is not limited to the weather but directly affects the global economy and supply chains.

Chocolate Could Become More Expensive

The effects of El Niño are also being felt in the global cocoa market. Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, has slowed sales and raised prices amid fears that drought could damage future harvests.

The result could be tangible for consumers: higher chocolate prices worldwide.

A Blow to the Fishing Industry as Well

In Peru, the effects of El Niño are particularly evident in the fishing sector.

“One concrete way Peru is affected is through the shutdown of fishing activity that depends on nutrient-rich waters rising from the depths of the Pacific Ocean under normal conditions,” Callahan explains.

This has significant economic consequences for the region and for communities that depend on fishing.

The Effects Could Last for Years

According to experts, the economic effects of El Niño do not always appear immediately.

Economies may recover temporarily by rebuilding infrastructure and restoring agricultural production. However, studies show that many countries face economic slowdowns and a lack of recovery for 5 to 10 years after extreme climate events.

How Are Governments Preparing?

Many countries have begun taking precautionary measures to reduce the impact. Panama has prepared water-rationing plans aimed at preventing another blockage of the Panama Canal. Bangladesh has invested in scientific research and early-warning systems for natural disasters. According to Paul Roundy, a professor at the University at Albany in the United States, these measures have produced tangible results. “The number of people who lose their lives in storms has fallen significantly. From hundreds of thousands of victims in the past, today many cases involve only dozens,” he noted.

El Niño remains one of the world’s most powerful climate phenomena. In addition to affecting the weather, it could raise food prices, disrupt international trade, damage agriculture and slow economic growth for many years. For this reason, experts stress that preparedness and investment in warning systems are essential to mitigating its effects./DW

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Një “super” El Niño mund të rrisë kostot e jetesës në mbarë botën. Ekspertët paralajmërojnë se deri në fund të vitit mund të shfaqet një nga fenomenet më të forta El Niño të regjistruara në 140 vitet e fundit.

Ky fenomen natyror nuk ndikon vetëm te kushtet e motit, por mund të ketë pasoja të mëdha edhe për ekonominë globale dhe kostot e jetesës.

Dëme ekonomike prej triliona dollarësh

Sipas Christopher Callahan, ekspert i klimës, ngjarjet e mëparshme të El Niños kanë shkaktuar humbje të jashtëzakonshme ekonomike. “El Niño i viteve 1982-1983 shkaktoi mbi 4 trilionë dollarë humbje ekonomike globale, të cilat u ndjenë deri në pesë vite pas fenomenit. Ndërsa ngjarja e viteve 1997-1998 solli rreth 5.7 trilionë dollarë humbje ekonomike”, thotë ai për DW.

Çfarë është El Niño?

El Niño është një fenomen klimatik që ndodh zakonisht çdo 2 deri në 4 vjet. Ai shoqërohet me temperatura më të larta të ujërave në Oqeanin Paqësor dhe shkakton: thatësira të forta, reshje intensive, përmbytje, valë të nxehti ekstreme.

Pasojat ndihen në shumë rajone të botës, duke dëmtuar infrastrukturën, prodhimin bujqësor dhe zinxhirët e furnizimit.

Rreziku për ushqimin dhe bujqësinë

Ndryshimet klimatike të lidhura me El Niñon mund të ndikojnë drejtpërdrejt në prodhimin e ushqimeve. India po përballet me temperatura ekstreme dhe rrezikon thatësirë për shkak të ndryshimeve në ciklet e erërave. Ndërkohë, Vietnami ka paralajmëruar për valë të forta të të nxehtit, rritje të reshjeve deri në 50% dhe përmbytje masive. Këto zhvillime mund të reduktojnë prodhimin bujqësor dhe të çojnë në rritje të çmimeve të ushqimeve në tregjet ndërkombëtare.

Problemet me ujin dhe tregtinë globale

El Niño mund të ndikojë edhe në rrugët ujore strategjike. Në Panama, nivelet e ulëta të ujit kufizuan numrin e anijeve që mund të kalonin përmes Kanalit të Panamasë. Si rezultat, tregtia globale u ngadalësua dhe u shkaktuan humbje prej miliona dollarësh.

Kjo tregon se ndikimi i fenomenit nuk kufizohet vetëm te moti, por prek drejtpërdrejt ekonominë botërore dhe zinxhirët e furnizimit.

Çokollata mund të bëhet më e shtrenjtë

Pasojat e El Niños po ndihen edhe në tregun global të kakaos. Bregu i Fildishtë, prodhuesi më i madh i kakaos në botë, ka ngadalësuar shitjet dhe ka rritur çmimet për shkak të frikës se thatësira mund të dëmtojë të korrat e ardhshme.

Rezultati mund të jetë i prekshëm për konsumatorët: çmime më të larta të çokollatës në mbarë botën.

Goditje edhe për industrinë e peshkimit

Në Peru, pasojat e El Niños janë veçanërisht të dukshme në sektorin e peshkimit.

“Një nga mënyrat konkrete se si preket Peruja është mbyllja e aktivitetit të peshkimit që varet nga ujërat e pasura me lëndë ushqyese që ngjiten nga thellësitë e Oqeanit Paqësor gjatë kushteve normale”, shpjegon Callahan.

Kjo sjell pasoja të konsiderueshme ekonomike për rajonin dhe komunitetet që varen nga peshkimi.

Pasojat mund të zgjasin për vite

Sipas ekspertëve, efektet ekonomike të El Niños nuk shfaqen gjithmonë menjëherë.

Ekonomitë mund të rikuperohen përkohësisht duke rindërtuar infrastrukturën dhe duke rikthyer prodhimin bujqësor. Megjithatë, studimet tregojnë se shumë vende përballen me ngadalësim ekonomik dhe mungesë rimëkëmbjeje për 5 deri në 10 vjet pas ngjarjeve ekstreme klimatike.

Si po përgatiten qeveritë?

Shumë vende kanë nisur masa paraprake për të reduktuar pasojat. Panamaja ka përgatitur plane për racionimin e ujit, me qëllim shmangien e një bllokimi tjetër të Kanalit të Panamasë. Bangladeshi ka investuar në kërkime shkencore dhe sisteme paralajmërimi të hershëm për fatkeqësitë natyrore. Sipas Paul Roundy, profesor në Universitetin e Albany në SHBA, këto masa kanë dhënë rezultate konkrete. “Numri i njerëzve që humbin jetën nga stuhitë është ulur ndjeshëm. Nga qindra mijëra viktima në të kaluarën, sot në shumë raste flitet vetëm për dhjetëra”, thekson ai.

El Niño mbetet një nga fenomenet klimatike më të fuqishme në botë. Përveç ndikimit në mot, ai mund të rrisë çmimet e ushqimeve, të pengojë tregtinë ndërkombëtare, të dëmtojë bujqësinë dhe të ngadalësojë rritjen ekonomike për shumë vite. Për këtë arsye, ekspertët theksojnë se përgatitja dhe investimet në sisteme paralajmëruese janë thelbësore për të zbutur pasojat e tij./DW

The post DW: Një “El Nino” i fuqishëm mund të godasë planetin deri në fund të vitit, do sjellë tronditje ekonomike botërore, mot ekstrem dhe rritje të çmimeve të ushqimeve appeared first on Albeu.com.

In the first months of the year, Albania had energy to sell. In the summer, it is paying €41.5 million to import it, at least so far. This reversal is not unusual.

It has occurred repeatedly over the years, as domestic energy production remains heavily dependent on rainfall and water inflows. This time, it is happening as demand for energy rises due to high temperatures and the influx of tourists.

At the same time, storms and hail have damaged agricultural production, while vegetable prices rose by 8.5% in June, precisely at the peak of the domestic growing season.

The common denominator is hotter and more unstable weather. El Niño is part of this backdrop, but it is not the sole explanation for every heatwave, storm or price increase.

“El Niño affects the global climate, but its impact on the Mediterranean and Albania is not direct,” says Anira Gjoni, an expert in the Department of Meteorology at the Institute of Geosciences.

According to her, the country’s weather conditions are determined mainly by atmospheric systems that develop over the Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Europe, as well as by the regional circulation of air masses.

These systems can amplify, alter or weaken the signal associated with El Niño.

This makes it difficult to separate the phenomenon’s effects from the longer-term trend of climate change. Nevertheless, the economic impact of above-normal temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall is becoming more measurable.

Record Consumption Changes the Energy Balance

During several weeks in June, temperatures in Albania were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The country was on the periphery of the heatwave that hit Western and Central Europe harder, but the anomalies were sufficient to increase pressure on the energy system.

“The rise in temperatures in our country was 3–6 degrees above the long-term average during the respective weeks of June,” Gjoni says.

She explains that the episodes of high temperatures were driven by the arrival of extremely warm subtropical air masses from North Africa. According to her, these conditions are mainly linked to the atmospheric configuration over the Mediterranean rather than to a direct impact from El Niño.

Daily energy consumption peaked at around 25,000 megawatt-hours in June, according to the Distribution System Operator. Compared with the same month last year, the increase was 13.9%.

In the first six months of 2026, consumption reached 4.4 million megawatt-hours, up from 4.1 million a year earlier, an increase of about 10%.

High temperatures and increased tourism activity are driving greater use of air conditioning and placing a heavier load on the grid. More than 1,000 employees have been placed on standby for the summer season, while 136 teams have been deployed in the field to respond to faults and prevent outages.

However, the main cost does not lie solely in grid maintenance. The Albanian Power Corporation has contracted 331,200 megawatt-hours of energy for the period from July 1 to September 30. The weighted average price was €125.47 per megawatt-hour, while the total value of the contract reached approximately €41.5 million.

Just a few months earlier, the situation was the opposite. High inflows into the Drin cascade enabled KESH to produce more energy than the domestic market required. From January to April, the company sold 456,945 megawatt-hours, generating approximately €33.15 million in revenue, including VAT.

A Double Blow to Agriculture

In agriculture, the risk is not linked only to drought. It also comes from rapid shifts between periods without rainfall and short, intense storms.

“Longer dry periods, interrupted by brief episodes of intense rainfall, are one of the most likely scenarios,” Ms. Gjoni says.

According to her, at higher temperatures, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This can lead to rainfall concentrated over short intervals, increasing the risk of flash floods and urban flooding.

For July and August, forecasts do not indicate a strong tendency for rainfall to be significantly above or below the climatic norm. Rainfall is expected to remain uneven across time and space, with dry intervals interrupted by localized episodes.

“Seasonal forecasts are more reliable for temperatures than for rainfall,” Gjoni says.

This combination is particularly costly for farmers. Hot periods increase irrigation needs and production costs.

Storms can damage crops within minutes, often just before harvest. In early July, hail struck fields of wheat, barley and onions on the Maliq plain.

Farmers reported significant losses and, in some cases, damage to more than half of their crops. Fruit trees, vineyards and other crops were damaged in areas of Elbasan.

In Zavalinë, reports from the field indicated severe damage to apple, plum and grape production.

Vineyards were affected in Kolonjë. The storms also caused losses in livestock farming. A lightning strike killed 150 head of livestock at a farm in Delvinë, while another strike in the Maliq area killed about 30 sheep and goats.

There is still no complete financial assessment of these events. However, for small farms, the loss of a seasonal crop or a herd of livestock can wipe out an entire year’s income.

The risk is higher because production is uninsured, leaving the cost with the farmer or shifting it to the public budget through compensation claims in cases where this is deemed justified.

Prices Rise at the Peak of Supply

The blows to production are occurring at a time when vegetable prices are already rising sharply. According to INSTAT, the “Vegetables, greens and legumes” category became 8.5% more expensive in June compared with a year earlier. The rate was almost three times the average food inflation rate of 3%.

The increase is unusual for a month that coincides with the peak production period for many domestic crops. Under normal conditions, increased seasonal supply should lower prices. This time, the opposite happened. Weather is not the only factor.

Exports, transportation costs, labor shortages, the structure of trade and intermediary margins also affect the final price. Nevertheless, high temperatures, the need for more irrigation and hail damage are placing additional pressure on production.

Heat Also Drives Up the Cost of Wildfires

In July, the National Civil Protection Agency reported operations to tackle 16 fire outbreaks across several of the country’s regions. In Shëngjin, on July 13, the flames required the deployment of seven fire engines, the Armed Forces and a military helicopter.

The agency also reported operations in other areas, including the village of Klos, showing that the risk was not limited to a single outbreak. Prolonged heat and dry vegetation cause fires to spread faster, make them more costly and make them more difficult to contain.

In tourist areas, the cost extends beyond the land burned. It affects businesses, the tourist season and public finances, as every operation requires personnel, vehicles and fuel and, in more serious cases, air support. This has been clearly evident in recent years, when large coastal areas have been engulfed by fires.

The initial cause may be human, but higher temperatures multiply the consequences. The longer the heat persists, the more wildfires shift from seasonal episodes to a recurring economic risk every year.

El Niño Is Not the Only Cause

“El Niño and climate change are two different processes occurring simultaneously,” Gjoni says. El Niño is a natural, cyclical and temporary phenomenon that affects climate variability from one year to the next. Climate change represents a long-term trend of rising temperatures, linked mainly to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

“The high temperatures being recorded cannot be attributed solely to El Niño,” the expert says.

“It can temporarily intensify warming, but it is acting on a climate that is already getting warmer.”

Forecasts are also more reliable for temperatures than for rainfall. Temperatures are expected to remain above long-term averages in the coming months, while there is no clear indication as to whether rainfall will be above or below normal. It may remain uneven across time and territory.

This uncertainty carries its own cost. Energy companies must secure imports before knowing exactly how water inflows will change. Farmers must invest in irrigation, even though their crops may later be hit by hail. Municipalities must prepare simultaneously for water shortages, fires and flash floods.

El Niño may pass. The country’s economic exposure to heat and extreme weather will remain. Ultimately, the cost is not measured only in degrees Celsius. It appears in millions of euros spent on energy imports, crops lost in the fields and vegetables that cost more at the market.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the waters of the tropical Pacific become warmer than usual. This warming alters winds and rainfall, affecting weather in many parts of the world.

In some countries, it can bring drought and higher temperatures, while in others it can cause heavy rainfall and flooding. In Albania, its impact is usually indirect and interacts with atmospheric conditions over the Mediterranean and Europe./Monitor

The post From Energy to Agriculture and High Prices: The Economic Cost of El Niño and How It Affects Albania appeared first on Albeu.com.