The number of births in the country recorded a slight decline in the first half of 2026, but data by county show that the contraction was concentrated mainly in Tirana and, to a lesser extent, in Durrës, while other outlying counties recorded increases.

Until three years ago, Tirana had a positive birth balance due to its demographic pull, particularly among young people moving there from other counties.

Nationwide, 10,229 births were registered in the first six months of 2026, an annual decline of 1%, or 108 fewer births. In Tirana County alone, births fell by 5.5%, dropping from 5,022 babies in the first six months of 2025 to 4,748 in the first half of 2026, or 274 fewer births—nearly three times the national average.

This was the largest decline, both in absolute numbers and in terms of its impact on the national result.

In fact, excluding Tirana, births in the rest of the country would have increased by 166, or around 3.1%. Tirana’s share of total births fell from 48.6% to 46.4% within a year.

The same trend was observed in Durrës, where births declined by 5% over the same period. Taken together, Tirana and Durrës registered 327 fewer births, while all the other counties combined recorded an increase of 219 births.

The trend in births is an indicator of rising living costs in the largest urban centers. Tirana accounts for the majority of jobs, investment and services, but it has also experienced the sharpest increases in apartment prices, rents and service costs.

For young couples, securing a home, making mortgage or rent payments and covering childcare costs are consuming an ever-growing share of their income.

Young couples find it impossible either to rent or to buy a home. At the beginning of July, the average monthly rent for apartments in the capital, across all types of residential properties, reached 721 euros, according to real estate agencies.

At this rent level, calculated against the average gross monthly salary based on the figure published by INSTAT for the first quarter of 2026, an individual living in the capital would have to spend 77% of their gross monthly income, or 97% of their net income, to cover housing costs.

In Tirana, plans to buy a home are closer to an illusion than a reality for low- and middle-income families. The Albanian capital ranks fourth in Europe for housing unaffordability, according to the price-to-income ratio.

Doris Andoni, now an independent consultant working with international institutions who has had a long career in public administration dealing with housing issues, sees the situation becoming increasingly difficult for low- and middle-income families.

“The development of the residential sector is deeply unbalanced, unplanned, concentrated in the city center and within the Second Ring Road, and geared exclusively toward immediate profit. Investments are made spontaneously, without an urban vision, swallowing up green and recreational spaces that are vital to quality of life, while overburdening infrastructure, traffic and every public service. Above all, this is creating a housing system that is completely unaffordable for the poor and the middle class,” she said previously in an interview with Monitor.

“These groups are being driven out of the city, and this is one of the greatest harms being inflicted on urban life, creating a concentration of only one particular category. For now, this may not be visible, but it will become clear when construction is completed and the properties are occupied—or remain unoccupied—because there is a strong possibility that a large proportion will remain unsold or be turned into Airbnbs with a purely seasonal character.”

Tirana Declines, Counties Grow

The decline in births in Tirana shows that the capital’s economic advantages are not translating into more favorable conditions for starting or expanding a family.

Young people are postponing having children, limiting the number of children they have, or moving to areas where housing and living costs are more affordable.

Meanwhile, most counties recorded increases. Fier had the largest numerical increase, with 69 more births, or 9.9%, followed by Berat with 11.1%, Dibër with 9.4% and Kukës with 8.7%.

Increases were also recorded in Elbasan, Lezhë, Shkodër and Vlorë, while Korçë remained unchanged. Apart from Tirana and Durrës, only Gjirokastër recorded a decline, with 19 fewer births. Gjirokastër is a special case because of the extremely aged structure of its population.

The concentration of the decline in Tirana is consistent with the pressure that housing prices and daily expenses are placing on young families./Monitor

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